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Agriculture and Rural Development

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.

 

Bouncing back: Resilience as a predictor of food insecurity

Erwin Knippenberg's picture

One in eight people worldwide still go to bed hungry every night, and the increased severity of natural disasters like droughts only exacerbates this situation. Humanitarian agencies and development practitioners are increasingly focused on helping the most vulnerable recover from the effect of these shocks by boosting their resilience. 

Energy prices surged in November, beverages and fertilizer prices fell–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Also available in: Español | Français

Energy commodity prices surged 8 percent in November—the fifth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 9 percent increase in oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices made marginal gains as a 1 percent decline in beverages was balanced by a 1 percent increase in food prices, notably natural rubber (down 12 percent) and cotton (off 2 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 3 percent, led by a 6 percent drop in Urea.

Metals and mineral prices were unchanged. Gains in nickel and iron ore were balanced by declines in lead and aluminum. Precious metals prices rose marginally.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

Where commodity prices are going, explained in nine charts

John Baffes's picture
The most recent World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts commodities prices to level off next year after big gains for industrial commodities—energy and metals—in 2017. Commodity prices appear to be stabilizing after a boom that peaked in 2011, albeit at a higher average level than pre-boom.
 
Chart 1

Energy and fertilizer prices rose in October, raw materials and precious metals fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 3 percent in October, a fourth consecutive monthly gain, led by a strengthening in oil, according to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet.

Agriculture prices edged lower in the month, as raw materials declined, notably natural rubber, which tumbled 12 percent. Food and beverage prices changed little. Fertilizer prices climbed over 5 percent, helped by a 12 percent jump in urea.

A new twist on the inverse scale-productivity relationship in African agriculture

Talip Kilic's picture

One of the most storied topics in agricultural economics, dating back to Chayanov’s work on Russian peasants published nearly a century ago, is the inverse relationship between scale (in terms of farm or plot size) and (land) productivity - commonly known as the IR.

Nearly all commodity price indexes rose in September – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 5 percent in September—the third consecutive monthly gain—led by a surge in oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices rose modestly. Agriculture prices climbed a little over 1 percent, led by strong upturns in most edible oils and wheat.
The outlier to the trend of increases, beverage prices, fell 1 percent due to weakness in coffee prices. Fertilizer prices surged over 6 percent, led by a 16 percent jump in Urea.

Most commodity price indexes rose in August, led by metals – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased 4 percent in August, led by a 5 percent gain in oil and 10 percent surge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet noted.

Metals and mineral prices increased 8 percent, led by a 15 percent jump in nickel prices. All metal prices posted strong increases. Precious metals prices gained 4 percent led by a 5 percent increase in silver.

Understanding the effects of the world’s largest workfare program

Klaus Deininger's picture

As the world’s largest workfare program, India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) has attracted much atten­tion. Yet its impacts on agriculture have been relatively neglected. A re­cent paper by Deininger, Nagarajan, and Singh addresses this gap by fo­cusing on the program’s effects on ag­ricultural productivity as well as labor market outcomes.

The program offers unskilled em­ployment, for up to 100 days a year per household, in projects to provide local productivity-enhancing infrastructure. Wages are set by statute, at rates that are equal for men and women and, it is hoped, not attractive enough to pre­vent effective self-targeting.

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