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Energy

Ensuring a sustainable development path

Augusto Lopez-Claros's picture

I’ve suggested recently that although high economic growth in recent decades has greatly improved average life expectancy, infant mortality, and other leading indicators policymakers and development practitioners were still worried about the sustainability of these trends and whether people in developing countries would eventually enjoy the high standards of living of high-income countries. This, against the background of a planet under increasing stress, particularly as a result of climate change. In this blog, I explore some of the actions needed to sustain our global economy.

2016 Oil price forecast revised higher after supply disruptions boost prices in second quarter

John Baffes's picture

The World Bank is raising its crude oil price forecast for 2016 to $43 a barrel from $41 dollars after a 37 percent jump in energy prices in the second quarter due principally to disruptions to supply, particularly from wildfires in northwestern Canada and sabotage of oil infrastructure in Nigeria.

Improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar buoy commodity price indexes

John Baffes's picture

Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energy prices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent according to the April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook.

Is diversifying exports a path toward peace in Syria?

Saurabh Mishra's picture
"Syria". Drawing by Rajesh Sarkar.



Resource rich nations face unique challenges when attempting to move from low to high value added activities.

Resource sectors (such as mining and oil) tend to be highly capital intensive and offer limited employment opportunities to accommodate workers exiting from other sectors with lower average productivity, such as agriculture and informal services.

Lifting of Iran sanctions could have major impact on energy markets

John Baffes's picture
With a lifting of sanctions in 2016, Iran could play a key role in energy markets but boosting capacity will require foreign investment, according to the World Bank’s latest edition of Commodity Markets Outlook.
 

Commodity prices come tumbling down

John Baffes's picture
Most commodity prices fell in the third quarter of 2015 as a result of abundant supplies and weak demand, leading to a further downward revision in price forecasts for 2015 and 2016.

Our quarterly Commodities Markets Outlook report analyzes markets for major commodities groups and forecasts prices for 46 commodities from bananas to zinc. The price declines are part of a five-year-long commodities slump.

India’s chaotic and messy use of energy

Ejaz Ghani's picture



Globally, India ranks fourth in energy consumption, but it is not well endowed with energy resources. Being the second most populous country in the world, how India manages its industrialization and urbanization process will matter for national and global concerns about energy efficiency, pollution, and climate change. In a recent paper, we use enterprise data to look at the relationship between structural transformation, geography, and energy efficiency in India.

Despite low commodity prices, growth prospects in low-income countries remain robust

Gerard Kambou's picture
Large agricultural sectors, remittances, and public investment have cushioned the impact of sharply weaker terms of trade in commodity-exporting low-income countries (LICs). Growth in LICs was flat in 2014, but is expected to pick up in 2015 and remain robust during 2016–17.  Declining commodity prices, however, are likely to increasingly put pressure on fiscal and current account balances of LICs that rely heavily on exports of energy and metals. Many commodity-exporting LICs have limited buffers to absorb this deterioration.

On booms and super-cycles: China and India's central role in global commodity markets

John Baffes's picture
Global commodity prices underwent an exceptionally strong and sustained boom beginning in 2000. Unlike a typical price cycle, this boom has been characterized as a “super cycle”, i.e., a demand-driven surge in commodity prices lasting possibly decades rather than years. Many researchers say this is the fourth “super cycle” of the past 150 years. The price super cycle has been attributed to strong growth in emerging markets.

Commodities (mostly) continue to tumble

John Baffes's picture

We just published our Commodity Market Outlook for the third quarter of 2015, and report that most prices declined in the second quarter of 2015 due to ample supplies and weak demand, especially in industrial commodities (see figure below).
 

 
Energy prices rose 12 percent in the quarter, with the surge in oil offset by declines in natural gas (down 13 percent) and coal prices (down 4 percent). However, energy prices fell on average to 39 percent below 2014 levels. Natural gas prices are projected to decline across all three main markets—U.S., Europe, and Asia—and coal prices to fall 17 percent. Excluding energy, our report notes a 2 percent decline in prices for the quarter, and forecasts that non-energy prices will average 12 percent below 2014 levels this year. Iran’s new nuclear agreement with the US and other leading governments, if ratified, will ease sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Downside risks to the forecast include higher-than-expected non-OPEC production (supported by falling production costs) and continuing gains in OPEC output. Possible (less likely) upside pressures may come from closure of high-cost operations—the number of operational oil rigs in the US is down 60 percent since its November high, for example—and geopolitical tensions. 

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