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Labor and Social Protection

What’s new in social protection – October edition

Ugo Gentilini's picture

How long do the effects of cash transfers last? A paper by Blattman et al found that after nine years from inception, cash grants for young-adults in Uganda had lasting impacts on assets and skilled work, but had little effect on mortality, fertility, health or education. See Ozler’s nice blog dissecting the study. A paper by Barham et al found that, after 10 years from inception, conditional cash transfers in Nicaragua did not lead to long-term impacts in learning, but did yield significant impacts on nutrition (body mass index), fertility, and subsequent labor market outcomes and income. 

Will you be employed? Skills demanded by the changing nature of work

Shwetlena Sabarwal's picture

In 1997, Garry Kasparov, one of the greatest chess players in history, lost a chess match to a supercomputer called Deep Blue. Some years later Kasparov developed “advanced chess,” where a human and a computer team up to play against another human and computer. This mutation of chess is mutually beneficial: the human player has access to the computer’s ability to calculate moves, while the computer benefits from human intuition.  

Should I stay or should I go? How cash transfers can affect migration

Ugo Gentilini's picture
Also available in: Français |​ العربية | 中文

With 875 million people “on the move” by 2050, there is an durge of interest on how development policy interacts with such a complex phenomenon. Cash transfers, one of the hottest development topics, are surprisingly missing from the debate.

Automation and innovation: Forces shaping the future of work

Simeon Djankov's picture

IT’S robots that mostly come to mind when you ask people about the future of work. Robots taking our jobs, to be specific. And it’s a reaction that’s two centuries old, in a replay of Lancashire weavers attacking looms and stocking frames at the start of the first Industrial Revolution. A secondary reaction, among a much smaller group, is the creation of new jobs in the coming fourth Industrial Revolution.

Professor Ed Glaeser at Harvard neatly summarizes this dichotomy in one figure:


 

What’s new in social protection – June edition

Ugo Gentilini's picture

Let’s start with social protection in Africa. A new paper by Kagin et al. estimates that in Malawi, each Malawi Kwacha (MK) transferred through the Social Cash Transfer Program generates 1.88 MK, while multipliers of public works are between 2.9-3.24 MK. In the same country, the Malawi Economic Monitor by Kandoole et al. has a very crisp, insightful edition discussing safety nets, e.g., spending is only 0.6% of GDP compared to 2% of input subsidies, and almost 6% on humanitarian aid.

What’s new in social protection – May edition

Ugo Gentilini's picture

Being poor often means being hurt twice: Kenny and Sandefur have a CGD commentary replicating CEQ analysis and showing that tax-transfer systems reduce inequality in the rich world, but often exacerbate poverty in the poorest countries. In 4 of the 5 Sub-Saharan African countries where CEQ data is available, the net effect of taxes and transfers was an increase the number of people living below the absolute poverty line. In Tanzania, poverty is nearly 20 percent higher due to taxes and transfers. 

What’s new in social protection – April edition

Ugo Gentilini's picture

Let’s start with the perennial question on whether cash transfers affect work incentives… the answer is yes but not by much. A review by Baird et al shows that programs tend to result in little or no change in adult labor decisions. The exceptions are adults living with seniors receiving pensions and on select refugee programs (although to a limited extent and in risky locations). Check out tables 1 and 2 (p.26-27) for handy summaries of the evidence. Similarly, Daidone et al. found significant impacts of the Zimbabwe Harmonized Social Cash Transfer Program on beneficiary agricultural activities, the share of households owning livestock, and non-farm enterprises. 

U.S. market access generated jobs in manufacturing and services and reduced income inequality in Vietnam

Ha Minh Nguyen's picture

Amid the recent rise of populism and protectionism, the labor market implications of trade have increasingly moved to the center of political and economic debates. Autor et al (2013), in an influential paper, find that U.S. regions that are more exposed to import-competing manufacturing industries witnessed larger declines in manufacturing employment and wages. 

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