Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty
This paper looks into the impact of changes in restrictions on staple foods trade during the 2008 food price crisis on global food prices and also analyzes the impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally.
Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty
In a new book released Monday, the World Bank's Africa Region convincingly argued for "Securing Africa's Land for Shared Prosperity" by recording land rights for both individuals and groups. That’s mainly because at a time when vastly-increased commodity demand has led to a series of widely publicized “land grabs” and urban expansion, the potential benefits from securing rights have greatly increased in several ways.
First, equity and efficiency. Poor and traditionally disadvantaged people, including women, have the least access to land rights, so securing their rights can provide them with access to a key productive resource. Also, if land rights are secured, land users will be more likely to invest in land improvement and modern technology to improve the efficiency of land use.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 1.3 billion people, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and in developing Asia, are without access to electricity. According to the IEA, an estimated $48 billion per year is needed to finance the volume of investment required to provide universal access to electricity by the year 2030. And this is a huge challenge, especially for the world's poorest nations.
President Obama on his recent Africa trip has hence announced a 7-billion project to increase electrical infrastructure. This is a much needed move as ,with scarce public resources, little assistance from the private sector, and limited aid, most of the developing these countries attempt to address their investment needs by creating regional power markets. Integrated power pools allow for the better use of existing infrastructures and realization of projects that would otherwise be oversized for an isolated country. For instance, the hydro potential of the Democratic Republic of Congo alone is estimated to be sufficient to provide three times the much power currently consumed in Africa. Large hydroelectric projects, such as the Grand Inga in the region of the Congo River and the projects for the Senegal River basin, could benefit all countries in the region. The challenging question, however, is how to finance and manage these projects.
Is China, after a hiatus of 150 years, again the largest economy in the world? Not all sources of GDP data agree, but there is little doubt that China is either already now the largest economy, or it will, within a year, become so by overtaking that of the United States. Whichever the case may be, a long era when the American economy was the largest in the world and which began around 1860, is now reaching its end.
Data on gross domestic product (called now Gross Domestic Income) are available from three sources: the Maddison project, which is the only source for the long-run series of national GDPs, going back to 1820s; the World Bank or IMF annual data, going back to 1960; and Penn World Tables, produced periodically at the University of Pennsylvania, going back from their just-released version 8.0 to 1950 . All three sources produce GDP data in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, which means that they adjust for differences in price levels between the countries. The easiest way to explain it is to say that PPPs try to account for each good and service using the same price for it around the world, so that a mobile phone, a kilo of rice and a haircut would each be valued the same in China as in the United States. Only thus can the real sizes of the economies, and the welfare of people, be truly comparable. These PPP data, in turn, are obtained through a massive worldwide project called the International Comparison Program, which is run every five to 10 years and collects more than 1,000 prices in all countries.
The following post is a part of a series that discusses 'managing risk for development,' the theme of the World Bank’s upcoming World Development Report 2014.
Crude oil is arguably one of the single most important driving forces of the global economy, and changes in the price of oil have significant effects on economic growth and welfare around the world. Indeed, the level of oil dependency of industrialized economies became particularly clear in the 1970s and 1980s, when a series of political incidents in the Middle East disrupted the security of supply and had severe effects on the global price of oil. Since then, oil price shocks due to such exogenous events have continuously increased in size and frequency (cf. Figure 1). While oil demand tends to be slow moving, mainly driven by economic growth and to some extent climate policies, the prospects of future oil supply are highly uncertain – not least considering persistent political instability in exporting countries and the uncertainty regarding the discovery of new reserves. As a result of such uncertainties, oil prices could undergo further (increasingly) drastic fluctuations in the future.
The recently launched report by the High Level Panel on the post-2015 Development Agenda puts forward that the post-2015 agenda needs to be driven by five big, transformative shifts. The first one it highlights is that the new agenda should leave no one behind. It states that:
“We should ensure that no person – regardless of ethnicity, gender, geography, disability, race or other status – is denied universal human rights and basic economic opportunities. We should design goals that focus on reaching excluded groups.”
Clearly, the world will have to pay particular attention to slum-dwellers, who are left behind in many areas of development and in the current Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
Shanta Devarajan and Marcelo Guigale have a CGD working paper on 'The Case for Direct Transfer of Resource Revenues in Africa.'
"Policymakers should be cautious in interpreting the plunge in gold prices as a vote of confidence in their performance," says Ken Rogoff on 'Golden Slumbers.' Read it here.
"Education is the only solution. Education First" - Malala Yousafzai. Read the full text of Malala Yousafzai's speech at the UN here.
On May 30, 2013, the High Level Panel of eminent persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, a group that had been asked for advice by the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, issued its report, ‘A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies through Sustainable Development’. Even though this is not the first report on the topic of what the sequel to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) should be (and it will certainly not be the last either), it is perhaps the first comprehensive report that links voices from around the world with some of the political realities facing the General Assembly as it looks to find a consensus agreement on the post-2015 agenda.
The Secretary-General established the High-Level Panel (HLP) in July 2012, right after the Rio+20 conference. It consisted of 27 persons and was co-chaired by the President of Liberia, Ms. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the President of Indonesia, Dr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and the Prime Minister of the UK, Mr. David Cameron, MP. The HLP was tasked to provide bold yet practical thinking for the post-2015 development agenda. Its report highlights the need for a single agenda that brings together social, economic and environmental issues, and for a universal agenda that is relevant to, and actionable by, all countries.
Mention China at your next dinner party, and chances are you will be met with references about future superpowers, exchange rates, and the joys of traveling through gleaming new airports. And while the conversation may touch on the dining scene along the Bund or outstanding new restaurants in Shanghai and Beijing, the impact of food standards on global consumers will almost certainly not be the center of discussion.
The fact is, however, that trade in agriculture is one of the most important ways the world connects with China. China’s exports of food products increased from US$ 9.7 billion to US$ 56.3 billion between 1992 and 2012. The United States alone imported US$ 6.5 billion worth of Chinese fish, seafood, juice, vegetables, fruit, and other food products in 2012—making China the third largest source of US food imports.
Here was an exemplary developing country – nay, emerging market! In the 2000s, Brazil’s economic growth, albeit not stellar, was certainly steady. Inequality fell continuously and markedly throughout the decade and, as a result of those two things, poverty fell from 43% of the population in 2003 to around 25% by the end of decade (using a $4/day poverty line). By the World Bank’s definition – which is considerably more demanding than the government’s – the middle class grew in size by more than 50%, to over 60 million people in 2010. Infant mortality fell. Life expectancy rose. We were going to host the World Cup and the Olympics – the only country ever to do so back-to-back with the exception of the United States. The sun was shining... What could possibly go wrong?
Then, on June 13, a relatively small demonstration against a hike in bus fares in the city of São Paulo was violently repressed by police. The following two weeks saw a remarkable eruption of street protests across hundreds of Brazilian cities, with hundreds of thousands in the streets at certain times. In a soccer-loving country, Brazil’s successes at the Confederations Cup did nothing to mitigate popular anger. On the contrary, one of the protesters’ multiple banners was indignation at the scale of spending on (and corruption from) football stadia for next year’s World Cup, while schools, hospitals and public transport are allowed to languish.