In 2014, foreign investors invested more than one trillion U.S. dollars into emerging countries. Of those inflows, 90 billion U.S. dollars came in the form of equity financing. On aggregate, capital inflows have helped may developing countries invest and grow, even despite the associated volatility they might entail. But we still do not know how those inflows are transmitted within an economy once they arrive.
After a prolonged slowdown, investment growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) picked up to 4.5 percent in 2017, and is projected to accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2018 and 2019 (investment refers to real gross fixed capital formation, public and private combined). Yet projected investment growth is below its long-term (1990–2017) average, inhibited by political uncertainty, trade risks, and expectations of rising interest rates. This will likely limit potential output growth and delay per-capita income convergence between EMDEs and advanced economies.
Non-energy prices advanced 1.8 percent while agricultural prices increased 1.7 percent on higher prices for wheat (up 11 percent), rice and cocoa (4 percent rises each), soybean meal and tea (4 percent gains each). Fertilizer prices decreased 0.7 percent, led by a 5 percent drop in urea.
Metals prices gained 2.3 percent, led by gains in aluminum (up 9 percent) and nickel (4 percent rise).
The Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) is fast approaching. The theme of this year’s conference is "Political Incentives and Development Outcomes" and papers selected for this year’s ABCDE are now posted online.
Global inflation has been trending up over the last two years, but is still subdued despite a broad-based recovery in economic activity. The reasons for this include the lingering impact of the 2007-2009 financial crisis on price and wage formation in advanced economies, as well as downward pressures associated with rapid technological changes and foreign competition.
In April, PovcalNet revised the World Bank’s global and regional poverty estimates from 1981 to 2013. The next major update of global and regional poverty estimates is scheduled for October 2018, when the global poverty estimates for the reference year 2015 will be released. This will coincide with the launch of the next Poverty and Shared Prosperity report (the 2016 Poverty and Shared Prosperity report can be found here).
Global commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018 and are expected to be higher on average this year than in 2017. Broad-based price increases have been supported by both demand—as economic growth has strengthened—and supply factors, including restraint by major oil producers, trade tensions, and economic sanctions.
The Commodity Market Outlook can downloaded here.
Figure 1. Commodity price indexes, monthly
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is March 2018.
Let’s start with the perennial question on whether cash transfers affect work incentives… the answer is yes but not by much. A review by Baird et al shows that programs tend to result in little or no change in adult labor decisions. The exceptions are adults living with seniors receiving pensions and on select refugee programs (although to a limited extent and in risky locations). Check out tables 1 and 2 (p.26-27) for handy summaries of the evidence. Similarly, Daidone et al. found significant impacts of the Zimbabwe Harmonized Social Cash Transfer Program on beneficiary agricultural activities, the share of households owning livestock, and non-farm enterprises.
How has your life changed for you compared to your parents or grandparents when they were your age? How do you see your children’s lives and possibilities compared to your own? To find out we’ve kicked off a social media campaign to highlight the issue of intergenerational mobility. And we invite you to take part in the #InheritPossibility campaign and share your stories.