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Global economic prospects: sluggish emerging market activity to weigh on global growth in 2016

Carlos Arteta's picture

Global economic growth is projected to pick up modestly in 2016 to 2.9 percent after a disappointing 2015, the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report says.  Growth slowed last year to a 2.4 percent rate, 0.4 percentage points below earlier projections, amid falling commodity prices and weak flows of trade and capital.

Growth is expected to edge up this year as advanced economies grow more solidly, commodity prices stabilize, China continues to gradually rebalance its economy and global financial conditions remain benign despite rising United States interest rates.  Even so, the forecast is lower than projections of six months ago, principally due to the simultaneous slowdown in major emerging market economies.
 

Demography should guide policies in the world’s centers of poverty and fragility

Hans Lofgren's picture
What role could demographic policy play in the countries with the highest poverty rates and the lowest level of human development, which often also suffer most from conflict and violence? A crucial role.

This is a key message in the Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 – Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change, recently issued by the World Bank and the IMF. The countries in this category are labeled “pre-dividend,” (see Figure 1); two thirds of the world’s countries most affected by fragility, conflict and violence belong to this group.

Figure 1. Global Monitoring Report Demographic Country Typology: Pre-dividend countries.
Source: World Bank. 2015. Global Monitoring Report.

#GenderMatters: From digital divides to digital dividends

Indhira Santos's picture
Eighty percent of the population in developing countries owns a mobile phone, but—according to the most recent report on the subject by the global association of mobile operators, GSMA—more than 1.7 billion women do not own one. Women are 14 percent less likely to own a mobile phone than men, on average. Women in South Asia are 38 percent less likely to own a phone than men.
 

Estonia’s digital dividends

Toomas Hendrik Ilves's picture

Digital technology dominates our everyday lives, and with each passing day, even more so. How can the global community benefit from the new digital era?
 
The World Bank’s World Development Report 2016 (WDR 2016) provides a useful framework and guidance for harnessing the potential of the internet for development. “To get the most out of the digital revolution, countries also need to work on regulations, skills and institutions—by strengthening regulations that ensure competition among businesses, by adapting workers’ skills to the demands of the new economy, and by ensuring that institutions are accountable,” says the Report. This may sound familiar, but it is not. Let me explain. 

Online outsourcing: A global job opportunity for everyone?

Saori Imaizumi's picture
“My life has totally changed. Now I am earning money from the Internet and I come to know a lot of new things. Internet is really amazing.”
- Male, from Madurai, India, Age between 16-25, intermediate diploma holder
 
“ I am a full time independent freelancer and my 100% earning comes from online. So definitely internet is one of the most important things in my life”
- Male, from Dhaka, Bangladesh, Age between 26-45, completed Bachelor and above

 
These quotes are just a glimpse at the power of digital technologies, coming from many amazing stories as people answered the following question online: “how has your life changed (personally or professionally) after you began to use the internet?” A key message from the responses is “Internet provides an opportunity to learn, earn, make friends, connect with family and friends, apply for jobs easily, and shop online.”  As discussed in the upcoming World Development Report 2016 “Digital Dividends,” the internet, and other digital technologies, are changing the way people work, entertain, interact, and find jobs across high, middle and low-income countries.

How has China moved-up the global value chains?

Hiau Looi Kee's picture
The last few decades have witnessed the rise of global value chains (GVC), with factories being set up in the faraway countries, such as China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mexico, producing and shipping products for the US and EU markets.  Typically, being part of a GVC entails firms importing materials and intermediate products for further processing before exporting to other countries.  This implies that, together with the engagement of GVCs, these countries most likely face the inevitable decline in their domestic value added embedded in their exports (see Figure 1).  In other words, less value

Narrowing gender gaps through online job matching: How does Souktel do it?

Indhira Santos's picture

“Within two days, I was able to hire the right people from the right locations” -- Employer using Souktel

In West Bank and Gaza, women are 19 percent of the total labor force (figure 1). But among the users of Souktel, an online job matching platform, more than one third of the users are women. This is one of the many promises of digital technologies for development.
 
Figure 1: Share of the labor force, nationally and in Souktel

Source: Souktel and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, prepared for World Development Report 2016.

From global SDGs to country policymaking

Hans Lofgren's picture
What should countries do to accelerate progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda? The agenda, adopted by the world’s leaders in September is very comprehensive: its 17 goals and 169 targets cover economic, social, and environmental dimensions of development.

Saturday, December 12 was UHC Day. What have we learned in the last 12 months about Universal Health Coverage?

Adam Wagstaff's picture
It turns out lots of interesting things happened on December 12. Beethoven had his first lesson in music composition with Franz Joseph Haydn (1792), Washington, D.C. became the capital of the US (1800), Guglielmo Marconi sent the first transatlantic radio signal (1901), Kenya declared independence from the UK (1963), The Beatles played their last UK concert (1965), and  Ed Sheeran announced he was “taking a break” from social media (2015). Oh yes, and the UN endorsed a resolution calling for countries to “provide affordable, quality health care to every person, everywhere” (2012).

As development actors, how should we address the forced displacement crisis?

Xavier Devictor's picture
Forced displacement has long been seen as a humanitarian issue. But with the number of forcibly displaced people at historic highs, there are increasing calls for development actors to engage.  

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