Download the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report.
Global growth sputtered in 2018 amid weakening trade and manufacturing, tighter financing conditions, and elevated policy uncertainties.
Growth decelerated in almost 80 percent of advanced economies and in nearly half of emerging market and developing economies in 2018. This year, it is expected to slow further in a majority of advanced economies and in about a third of emerging market and developing economies.
In all, global growth is predicted to moderate from 3.0 in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 and an average of 2.8 percent in 2020-21, below previous forecasts.
Risks of even slower-than-expected growth have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting confidence and further setting back growth prospects in emerging market and developing countries.
Here is a look at global economic prospects in five figures:
1. Global growth is moderating as trade and manufacturing lose momentum. The deceleration in global activity was more pronounced than previously expected in 2018, as reflected in softening export orders and industrial production growth. The slowdown in global trade came against the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions involving major economies. A. Global industrial production andnew export orders
A. Global industrial production and new export orders
Download the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report.
Last week I spoke at the World Bank’s Productivity Bootcamp, organized by Ana Cusalito, Bill Maloney, and Jan De Loecker. A psychologist might say that the professor in me could not let go of teaching. But the Bootcamp was about more than “productivity.” It covered firm profitability, competition, and market power – topics that lie at the heart of the raging debate on market concentration and firm profits, the declining labor share in the U.S., and rising inequality.
This blog is the eighth in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.
The World Bank’s Metals and Minerals Price Index is forecast to remain broadly unchanged in 2019, following a projected 5 percent increase in 2018. However, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated due to China’s environmental policies, tariff negotiations between the United States and China, and Chinese policy responses aimed at stimulating the economy and cushioning the impact of trade tensions.
After months of early NY Penn Station mornings trying to remember whether to get on the Amtrak north to New Haven or south to DC, I am thrilled to transition from incoming Chief Economist to Chief Economist. We have so many fascinating problems to tackle and I truly hope my experience and humble efforts will contribute to the Bank’s mission.
This blog post is based on de Soyres, Frohm, Gunnella and Pavlova (2018), “Bought, Sold and Bought Again: Complex value chains and export elasticities”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 8535.
Economics textbooks outline a clear-cut relationship between movements in a country’s exchange rate and its export volumes. When the currency depreciates, export volumes are expected to increase by some amount. By how much exports increase is called the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Yet, some recent episodes of significant exchange rate movements, such as those in Japan (2012–2014) and the United Kingdom (2007–2009), were not associated with very large movements in trade volumes.1 This perceived unresponsiveness of exports to exchange rate fluctuations has raised the question among some commentators as to whether the exchange rate elasticity of export volumes have changed or even become zero.
The EU’s new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) recently went into effect. You have probably received emails regarding your data resident on email servers and applications. And while the media focus has also remained on data concerns with Facebook and other personal data, the impact of the GDPR on developing countries has received little attention. Their exports of data-based services rely on the free flow of data across borders. Strengthened regulation can make international data transfers more difficult. And traditional trade rules and regulatory cooperation cannot resolve this conflict.
Trade unexpectedly rebounded in 2017, after a period of slow growth and despite recent uncertainty about trade policy. Growth in the volume of trade in goods and services jumped to 4.3 percent in 2017—the fastest rate in 6 years (Figure 1). The recovery was widespread, with the largest contributions to growth coming from East Asia and the Euro area. Data just released for the first quarter of 2018 suggests that the faster growth persists: merchandise trade volumes grew by 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018 relative to the first quarter of 2017. What explains these developments?
Amid the recent rise of populism and protectionism, the labor market implications of trade have increasingly moved to the center of political and economic debates. Autor et al (2013), in an influential paper, find that U.S. regions that are more exposed to import-competing manufacturing industries witnessed larger declines in manufacturing employment and wages.
Non-energy prices fell almost 1 percent due to a drop in metal prices. Agricultural prices increased 1 percent, largely on higher cocoa prices (+18 percent), maize and soybean meal (+5 percent each), as well as cotton and soybeans (+4 percent each). Fertilizer prices rose more than 1 percent, led by TSP (triple superphosphate) (+3 percent) and DAP (diammonium phosphate) (+2 percent).
Metals prices dropped 5 percent, led by iron ore prices (-9 percent), zinc and lead (-7 percent each), and aluminum (-5 percent).
Precious metals prices were marginally down due to a 1 percent decline in silver prices.
The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
Source: World Bank.
Small differences in the time and cost to trade can determine whether or not a country participates in global value chains. In this respect, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), which came into force on February 22, 2017, is a landmark achievement given its comprehensive coverage of the issues around cutting red tape and promoting efficiency and transparency, as well as the fact that it is the first multilateral agreement since the establishment of the WTO in 1995. Coincidentally, the Trading Across Borders (TAB) indicator of Doing Business measures the efficiency of national regulations in trade facilitation and keeps track of relevant reforms, allowing us to analyze how the provisions of the TFA are related to the reform efforts of governments around the world.