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油价下跌给东亚地区带来机遇

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
图片 "Pro Pit" CC BY-NC-SA 2.0条款下由Aaron Webb提供 。

“绝不让机会从身边溜走,但需三思而后行,”日本的这句谚语对当前的东亚地区尤为适用。

 油价下跌给本地区大部分发展中国家增强经济竞争力、利用全球经济持续复苏势头发展国内经济提供了一大机遇。

2014年中期以来油价下跌了50%以上,这反映出前些年全球尤其是北美地区石油供应持续增长、全球石油生产面临的地缘政治风险降低、石油输出国组织(欧佩克)为保持产量和市场份额而付出的努力以及去年全球产量增幅低于预期。由于油价起码在2016年之前有望保持低位,这些因素有可能持续存在。

日本在内的大部分东亚国家系石油进口国,因而从油价下跌受益。预计这些国家经济增速将加快,通胀水平将降低,经常账户平衡状况将改善。

An opportunity for East Asia in plunging oil prices

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

“Never let an opportunity pass by, but always think twice before acting,” says a Japanese proverb with particular pertinence for East Asia today.

Plunging oil prices present a significant opportunity for most of the region’s developing countries to strengthen the competitiveness of their economies and take advantage of the ongoing global recovery.

The drop in oil prices — over 50% since mid-2014 — reflects several years of increasing oil supply, particularly in North America, along with decreased geopolitical risks to global production, OPEC’s efforts to maintain production levels and market share, and weaker-than-expected global growth last year. These factors are likely to persist, with oil prices expected to remain low through at least 2016.

Most countries in East Asia, including Japan, benefit from the price decline because they are oil importers. They can expect more rapid economic growth, lower inflation and improved current account balances.

How to narrow the gap between the rich and poor in Malaysia?

Frederico Gil Sander's picture

If you could make one New Year’s wish for your country, what would it be?

For many Malaysians, Prime Minister Najib Razak’s wish for “a safer, more prosperous, and more equal society” likely resonated with their hopes for 2015.

Malaysians appear to be increasingly concerned about income inequality. According to a 2014 Pew Global survey, 77% of Malaysians think that the gap between the rich and poor is a big problem. The government has acknowledged that inequality remains high, and that tackling these disparities will be Malaysia’s “biggest challenge” in becoming a high-income nation.

How can Malaysia narrow the gap between the rich and poor? Global experience suggests two possible levers to achieve a more equitable income distribution.

Philippines: Shattering the Myths: It’s Not Tough to Build Green

Maria Teresita Lacerna's picture
Solar panels on the Tiarra houses in an affordable housing community in Batagas, south of Metro Manila, are expected to contribute to 32 percent savings in energy.

Buildings now dot the skyline of Bonifacio Global City in Metro Manila, which hosts, among others, the offices of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation.  Who would have thought that this former military camp could be transformed into a bustling economic center in less than ten years?  And, with the rise of commercial buildings and residential condominiums following the area’s fast-paced growth, we see a growing demand for electricity that causes stress on the environment and resources. 

跟踪监测城市化:大数据如何推动制定相关政策确,确保城市增长造福贫困人口

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
 Measuring a Decade of Spatial Growth

每一分钟,东亚地区都有数十人从农村迁往城市。

随着人口大规模迁移,世界上形成了一些超大城市,如东京、上海、雅加达、首尔、马尼拉等,也形成了若干中小城市。

使用清洁饮水到乘坐每天上下班高峰时段在各城市间运送数以百万计人口的高铁,这一转变对人们生活和生计的方方面面产生了影响。

人们之所以迁往城市,是为了寻找更好的工作,改善生活状况。不过,城市化也伴随着风险,这些风险有可能延长贫困期,导致机会缺乏,不能改善未来发展前景。

城市一旦建成,城市形态和土地利用模式就锁定下来,后代难以更改。现在城市化相关工作,可避免今后花几十年时间和大量资金来修正错误。

Malaysia: From Developing Nation to Development Partner

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
World Bank Vice President for East Asia & Pacific on opening a new office in Malaysia

In 1954, the World Bank’s first mission report on Malaya – as the soon-to-be-independent country was called then – expressed concern about its development prospects. The mission was “favorably impressed with Malaya’s economic potentialities and prospects for expansion.” But it questioned  whether the “rates of economic progress and additions to employment opportunities can move ahead of or even keep up with the pace at which the population and the labor force are growing.”

Sixty years and 25 million more Malaysians later, hindsight proved such worries overdone as income per capita climbed from USD 250 at the time of the report to over USD$10,000 today.

 

With its successful economic and social development, Malaysia is now actively moving into a new role as a global development partner—supporting other countries in ending poverty and sharing lessons from its journey to become a regional economic powerhouse. This new role is a natural fit for a nation in transition toward a high-income status, and a big gain for the rest of us.

 

Tracking Urbanization: How big data can drive policies to make cities work for the poor

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
 Measuring a Decade of Spatial Growth

Every minute, dozens of people in East Asia move from the countryside to the city.

The massive population shift is creating some of the world’s biggest mega-cities including Tokyo, Shanghai, Jakarta, Seoul and Manila, as well as hundreds of medium and smaller urban areas.

Philippines: Traffic woes and the road ahead

louielimkin's picture
Traffic congestion results in an estimated productivity loss of around PHP2.4 billion ($54 million) a day or more than PHP800 billion ($18 billion) a year.



From my house in northern Quezon City, I drive more than two hours every day to get to the office in Bonifacio Global City, which is about three cities away where I come from, and two cities away from the capital Manila. It’s a journey that should only take around half an hour under light traffic. That is a total of four hours on the road a day, if there is no road accident or bad weather. It takes me an hour longer whenever I use the public transport system. Along with hundreds of thousands of Metro Rail Transit (MRT) commuters, I have to contend with extremely long lines, slow trains, and frequent delays due to malfunctions. This has been my experience for several years. Many of us might be wondering: why have these problems persisted?

Businesses benefit where governments are unable or unwilling to protect human rights, right? Wrong

Carolyn Blacklock's picture



When one thinks of businesses operating in countries that are still struggling to protect and provide for human rights, a narrative can easily spring to mind involving unscrupulous businesses happily taking advantage of weak labor laws, a lack of minimum wage and poor environmental controls. But, in many places, the reality is very different. Not only is the private sector itself adversely impacted by weak human rights protections but, more than this, businesses are themselves having to take up a leadership role to compensate for weaknesses that exist at a national level.

Tiga pelajaran penting dari Tsunami 2004

Abhas Jha's picture
Also available in: English



Pada dasarnya saya adalah orang yang pragmatis, mengingat awal karir saya sebagai petugas kelurahan, lanjut terus ke kecamatan, di India, ketika saya bertanggungjawab untuk banyak hal yang terjadi di lapangan, mulai dari persediaan air hingga rencana penggunaan lahan pertanian. Namun saya sangat sedih dan terpukul menyaksikan dampak dari bencana tsunami 2004. Di Indonesia saja, sekitar 220.000 orang kehilangan nyawa.

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