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February 2010

China grew faster than its target and most projections in 2009 – what are the key takeaways?

Louis Kuijs's picture
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China’s economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009. This was more than the 8 percent target, despite the global recession that caused global output excluding China to fall about 3 percent. China’s growth outcome is substantially higher than projections made in early 2009. For instance, in our  World Bank quarterly economic update (of which I am the lead author) we projected 6.5 percent GDP growth and some other forecasts were even lower (see Figure 1).

How did these forecasts come about, and what lessons we can draw from the experience of China’s growth in 2009? I cannot speak for my colleagues at the World Bank, let alone for other economists. But, all in all, while I have learned important lessons, I am not sure how differently I would see and do things if again presented with a situation like we were in a year ago.

Зуд: Байгалийн энэхүү гамшиг нь Монголын мал аж ахуйд болон малчдын амьжиргаанд хүндрэл учруулж байна

Arshad Sayed's picture

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(Originally published in English.)

Өнөөдрийн байдлаар Монгол Улс ихээхэн хэмжээний цас, хүйтэн хавсарсан цагаан “зуд” хэмээх байгалийн гамшигт нэрвэгдээд байна. Энэ нь зундаа ган гачигтай байснаас бэлчээрийн хомсдолд орж, өвс тэжээл хангалттай базаах боломж олгоогүй улмаар өвөлдөө цас их орж, салхилан цаг агаар хэвийн хэмжээнээс доогуур болж хүйтний эрч эрс чангарсантай холбоотой.  Бэлчээрийг үлэмж их цас дарж, мал сүрэг бэлчих аргагүй болж, өвс тэжээлээр гачигдан зутрах зэрэг өвлийн улирлын нөхцөл байдалд зуд болдог.

Dzud: a slow natural disaster kills livestock --and livelihoods-- in Mongolia

Arshad Sayed's picture

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(Available in: монгол хэл.)

Mongolia is currently experiencing a white "dzud" – a multiple natural disaster consisting of a summer drought resulting in inadequate pasture and production of hay, followed by very heavy winter snow, winds and lower-than-normal temperatures. Dzuds occur when the winter conditions – particularity heavy snow cover – prevent livestock from accessing pasture or from receiving adequate hay and fodder.