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East Asia & Pacific is facing some great development challenges today: urbanization, protection of the environment, the need to find renewable energy sources and many others. This site wants to create a conversation around those important issues. More »

Cambodia

Growth in China continues to influence East Asia’s economic recovery, two new World Bank reports say

Submitted by James I Davison on Tue, 2009-11-03 23:10

Regionally speaking, developing countries in East Asia and Pacific have rebounded surprisingly quickly from the financial crisis and global recession. But according to a report just released by the World Bank, the regional economic picture isn’t as rosy when China is taken out of the equation. The latest East Asia and Pacific Update report, an assessment of the economic health of the region released every six months, is titled “Transforming the Rebound into Recovery.” The rebound, the report says, was driven in part by large and timely fiscal stimulus spending led by China and Korea. Still, despite the well-performing economies of Indonesia and Vietnam, developing East Asia excluding China is projected to grow at just around 1 percent in 2009. And for Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand, GDP is contracting.

The China Quarterly Update – a separate report released at the same time as the latest regional assessment and focusing specifically on the Chinese economy – gives a more complete picture of why the country has seen such robust economic growth and what the future may hold. The Bank now projects China to see GDP growth of 8.4 percent for 2009, says the report. The report’s lead author (and blogger) Louis Kuijs wrote an accompanying blog post, which can be read here.

I really recommend taking some time to explore the findings of both reports by visiting the East Asia Update and China Quarterly pages, where you can also download high resolution graphs and watch video interviews with the economists. Also, you'll be able to ask two World Bank economists questions about the regional report in an online chat taking place Thursday, November 12, at 10 a.m. DC time (15:00 GMT or 11:00 p.m. in Beijing). Send your questions now for a better chance of getting them answered.

Health restored? Uncertainty in forecasting Thailand's economic outlook

Submitted by Frederico Gil Sander on Tue, 2009-09-22 14:05

In Laos, the government has reportedly already healed the economy from the economic flu. But in Thailand, there seems to be more uncertainty about the health of the economy, and some commentators are not ready to call the recession over. The Thai economy contracted by 4.9 percent from the previous year in the second quarter of 2009, better than the 7.1 contraction posted in the first quarter. What can we expect for the rest of 2009 and 2010?
 
This is very timely question for all World Bank economists in East Asia, who are currently finalizing their forecasts for the upcoming East Asia and Pacific Update economic report, to be launched in November. On my end, I am writing this post from Cambodia, where I am meeting with palm readers, fortune tellers and other economic healers to ensure highly accurate forecasts. Let me offer a preview of what the soothsayers are saying.

Regional roundup: Finance in East Asia - Jul. 10

Submitted by James Seward on Thu, 2009-07-09 23:16

This is the latest installment of the regional round-up and it has been a while.  However, there has not been much groundbreaking news related to the financial crisis to report, with a few exceptions (more to come later). 

New web and mobile connectivity report: China, the Philippines lead region in IT jobs

Submitted by James I Davison on Wed, 2009-07-01 15:28
Students take a computer course at a private school in Cambodia.

A number of fascinating web-related findings came out of a World Bank report, released this week, which ties Internet and mobile phone access in developing countries to economic growth, job creation and good governance. Connectivity in the developing world seems to be better than ever. In developing countries worldwide, there are currently three billion mobile phone users, and the number of Internet users in developing countries increased by 10 times between 2000 and 2007.

In East Asian and Pacific countries, the number of Internet users (15 percent) was slightly above the developing-country average in 2007 (13 percent), but was still below the world average that year (22 percent). The connectivity and access to new information and communications technologies changes the way companies and governments do business, while bringing vital health, financial and other market information to people like never before.

While India is the clear leader in creating information technology-related jobs, China and the Philippines both stand out as benefiting by generating new job opportunities. And within the industry, the Philippines is also notable, because its IT services workforce is made up of 65 percent women, who hold more high-paying jobs than in most other sectors of the economy.

You can take your own look at the statistics compiled on each country, or create your own custom reports, from the IC4D Data & Methodology page.

You can also submit questions now for Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang, World Bank economist and editor of the report, for a live online chat on July 28 at 11 a.m. in Washington, D.C.

Inquiring minds: Cambodian students worry about their country's future

Submitted by Stéphane Guimbert on Thu, 2009-06-25 16:00

It's been a very enriching experience to listen to the reactions of these 1200 or so college students.

Over the past couple of weeks, thanks to my colleagues Saroeun and Sophinith, I have traveled to various universities in Cambodia to present the findings of the World Bank’s growth report for the country. It's been a very enriching experience to listen to the reactions of these 1200 or so students. It was also nice to see the dynamism of these universities and these students.

Most interesting was the focus of their questions. Although the report is focused on medium- and long-term trends, many questions were about the impact of the global economic crisis. My answer: Cambodia is very exposed to the crisis given its openness and reliance on foreign investment, and despite the strong resilience of its rural economy.

There were also many questions about extractive industries. The answer is in Chapter 5 of the report: there remain considerable uncertainties about the potential in oil and gas and in mining, with in fact practically no major proven commercially viable reserve so far.

Carbon Expo: A marketplace to finance environmental change

Submitted by Florian Kitt on Thu, 2009-05-21 17:04

Carbon finance sounds boring and technical and not much fun. However, it actually does a lot of good and can help fund critical environmental preservation projects as well as introduce clean and renewable technologies in both developed and developing countries. I am not a carbon specialist but at present involved in organizing the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Region's participation in next week's Carbon Expo, a global trade fair for CO₂ market participants. Doesn't really sound like a lot fun? Indeed, it's a lot of work.

Looking for signs of Cambodia's recovery: the ox weigh in, and more

Submitted by Stéphane Guimbert on Wed, 2009-05-13 13:29

Royal oxen, cousins to the more common variety in the photo, offered their take on Cambodia's agricultural prospects.
(Photo courtesy of dee under a Creative Commons license)

An important new development for economic forecasters happened yesterday. Like every year, a royal oxen predicted the country’s agriculture fortunes (a bit like Groundhog Day  for American readers, this is essentially based on what the oxen does and does not eat): by refusing to eat any of the grain, it raised concerns of a low rice harvest for this year… This would obviously be a bad omen given the many hopes placed on agriculture for weathering the global economic crisis. Other than that, tourist arrivals continue to slow down (and the low season will now start as the rain comes) and garment exports remain way below last year’s level.

So any good news since my last post on this and the release of the Cambodia Economic Watch? Yes, a few.

 

Seeing the financial crisis: What might contraction look like in Cambodia?

Submitted by Stéphane Guimbert on Tue, 2009-04-07 01:53

Declining revenue of tuk-tuk drivers in Cambodia shows even the informal sector isn't insulated.

Growth forecasts in Cambodia are generating a fair bit of confusion. Many simply question whether it is possible for GDP growth to be lower in 2009 than in the past 15 years.

The World Bank today launches its projection of a 1 percent contraction of the Cambodian economy. This is based on an analysis of available statistics and feedback from a range of economic actors. Yet, to most of my Cambodian friends, it remains hard to conceive.

It is true that "seeing" such a contraction will be difficult. Basically, what it means is that economic activity in 2009 will be pretty much the same as in 2008. So the fact that we continue to have traffic jams in Phnom Penh, see tourists at the Royal Palace, and hear construction machines in many residential areas is consistent with such a projection. What will change, though, is that incomes will not increase this year as fast as past years and it will also become more difficult for the 250,000 young people leaving school each year to find their first job. What also will be different is that with no growth in aggregate, there will be a proportion of those with a livelihood at the end of the year worse than at the beginning.

East Asian and Pacific countries look to China for possible recovery, says World Bank report

Submitted by James I Davison on Mon, 2009-04-06 23:01

Despite a surge in joblessness and a regional drop of the forecasted GDP growth to 5.3 percent expected in 2009, developing East Asian and Pacific countries may be able to look to China for hope during the current global economic slowdown. That's according to the World Bank's April 2009 edition of the East Asia & Pacific Update, which was released today.

The latest half-yearly assessment of the region's economic health, aptly titled "Battling the Forces of Global Recession", says there have already been signs of China's economy bottoming out by mid-2009. China's possible subsequent recovery in 2010, concludes the report, could contribute to the entire region's stabilization, and perhaps recovery.

There are a number of ways to review the findings of the report on the World Bank's website. Head over to worldbank.org/eapupdate to view specific chapters or download the full report. For an intimate view of people who are being affected by the ongoing financial crisis in East Asian and Pacific countries – including Cambodia, Thailand, Mongolia and the Philippines – check out "Faces of the Crisis". You can also view hi-res graphs from the report here.

Also, check back here in the next day or so for blog posts written by World Bank economists based in Cambodia and Lao PDR.

UPDATE: For country-specific expert perspectives on the new World Bank repot, check out blog posts from World Bank economists based in Cambodia and Laos. Stéphane Guimbert considers what contraction might look like in Cambodia. And Katia Vostroknutova takes a look at Laos' economy, which is less affected by crisis, but faces the increasing challenge of sustaining growth during the crisis.

Regional roundup: Finance in East Asia – April 3

Submitted by James Seward on Fri, 2009-04-03 09:43

I'm sorry it has been a while since the last East Asia & Pacific regional roundup. A lot has happened, so let's get right to it. As usual, the downward trends continue across the region. The Asian Development Bank just came out with their Development Outlook report and their growth forecasts for this year for emerging markets are bleak – only 2.3% growth in Southeast Asia and 4.7% for the region. The average is pulled up by China, where ADB's estimate for growth is 7%, which is slightly above the World Bank's forecast of 6.5% for China.

The rate of change is dramatic since 2007 when the regional average growth rate was and average of 8%. The countries most dependent on exports were hit the hardest, such as Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, and China. Speaking of which to give the latest examples include Korea, where exports declined by 21% in March, but the good news was that this drop was less than the 26% decline in the first two months of the year. Korea also experienced a 10.3% decline in industrial output in February.