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Mongolia

快速老龄化的东亚地区怎样才能保持其经济活力?

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
Panos Agency


过去三十年来,东亚地区收获了人口红利。大量且不断增长的劳动力对上世纪六十至九十年代人均收入增长的贡献接近三分之一,使得该地区成为全球增长引擎。
 
当前,东亚地区正面临另一个人口趋势构成的挑战:人口快速老龄化。新发布的一份世界银行报告发现,东亚和太平洋地区人口老龄化速度和规模均位于全球各地区首位。
 
目前,超过2.11亿65岁及以上人口居住在东亚和太平洋地区,占全球该年龄组别总人口36%。到2040年,东亚地区老龄人口将增长一倍以上,达到4.79亿;韩国、中国、泰国等国适龄就业人口将萎缩10%-15%。
 
纵观该地区,随着适龄就业人口减少和老龄化加速,政策制定者正关注人口老龄化对经济增长的潜在影响以及医疗卫生、养老金和长期养老体系对公共支出日益增加的需求。

随着该地区人口快速老龄化,政府部门、用人单位以及各家庭应如何确保辛勤工作的人们在进入老龄阶段后过上健康且有产出的生活?东亚和太平洋地区各社会应如何促进生产性老龄化并且提升包容性?

How can rapidly aging East Asia sustain its economic dynamism?

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
Panos Agency


In the last three decades, East Asia has reaped the demographic dividend. An abundant and growing labor force powered almost one-third of the region’s per capita income growth from the 1960s to the 1990s, making it the world’s growth engine.
 
Now, East Asia is facing the challenges posed by another demographic trend: rapid aging. A new World Bank report finds that East Asia and Pacific is aging faster – and on a larger scale – than any other region in history.
 
More than 211 million people ages 65 and over live in East Asia and Pacific, accounting for 36 percent of the global population in that age group. By 2040, East Asia’s older population will more than double, to 479 million, and the working-age population will shrink by 10 percent to 15 percent in countries such as Korea, China, and Thailand.
 
Across the region, as the working-age population declines and the pace of aging accelerates, policy makers are concerned with the potential impact of aging on economic growth and rising demand for public spending on health, pension and long-term care systems.
 
As the region ages rapidly, how do governments, employers and households ensure that hard-working people live healthy and productive lives in old age? How do societies in East Asia and Pacific promote productive aging and become more inclusive?
 

我们必须时刻准备再次迎来严重厄尔尼诺现象

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
厄尔尼诺现象又回来了,而且可能会来的更猛。
 
干旱季节印尼东爪哇省Madiun的Dawuhan大坝干裂的河床上搁浅的木船。  2015年10月28日 © ANTARA FOTO/路透社/Corbis


今年上半年太平洋水域开始出现新一轮周期性变暖,亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲都已感受到其影响。首次观察到太平洋海水变暖是在数百年前,自1950年以来正式开始监测跟踪。

气象专家预测此次厄尔尼诺现象将会持续到2016年春并有可能造成大破坏,因为气候变化可能导致一些地区暴雨和洪水加剧,另一些地区出现严重干旱和缺水。

厄尔尼诺的影响是全球性的,预计南美地区会遭遇暴雨和大洪水,非洲地区会经受酷热和干旱。

We must prepare now for another major El Niño

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
El Niño is back and may be stronger than ever.
 
A wooden boat is seen stranded on the dry cracked riverbed of the Dawuhan Dam during drought season in Madiun, Indonesia's East Java province.  October 28, 2015 © ANTARA FOTO/Reuters/Corbis



The latest cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters, first observed centuries ago and formally tracked since 1950, began earlier this year and already has been felt across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Weather experts predict this El Niño will continue into the spring of 2016 and could wreak havoc, because climate change is likely to exacerbate the intensity of storms and flooding in some places and of severe drought and water shortages in others.

El Niño’s impacts are global, with heavy rain and severe flooding expected in South America and scorching weather and drought conditions likely in the Horn of Africa region.

Staying the Course in Mongolia: 14 years institutionalizing community participation

Helene Carlsson Rex's picture
Also available in: Mongolian
In development we want things to go accordingly to plan.  We look for tools, guidelines and best practices in our quest for results and impact. But we also know that development is not an exact science and things do not always go according to plan.  Changes in government or an economic downturn can quickly make a project design irrelevant.

But in some cases, it does go (more or less) accordingly to plan despite bumps in the road along the way.  One such example is the Sustainable Livelihoods Program series in Mongolia, which on September 17, 2015 launched its third and final phase.

Back in 2002, after a series of particularly harsh winters that killed one-third of the livestock in Mongolia and added even more strain to an already impoverished rural population, the World Bank decided to support a new approach to sustainable livelihoods. At that time, the country had little history of community participation in local development planning, and few rural finance options.  

The vision was to place investment funds at the local level and to give the communities a strong voice in the allocation of these funds. Because of the risks associated with the severe winters in Mongolia, pastoral risk management and winter preparedness were to be strengthened. And with a history of inefficient central planning, supporting a policy shift towards greater fiscal decentralization was very important.

This vision and core principles were translated into the design of the three-part Sustainable Livelihoods Series, which included piloting, scaling-up and institutionalization phases.

Монголын нийгмийн халамжийн хөтөлбөрүүд ядуучуудад тусалж байна уу?

Junko Onishi's picture
Also available in: English

Монголын эдийн засгийн өнөөгийн байдал нь түүхий эдийн үнэ унасан, эдийн засгийн өсөлт буурсан гэдэг хоёр хүчин зүйлийн нийлбэр дээр байна. Энэ байдал нь орлогын бууралтад илүүтэй өртөж байгаа ядуучууд болон эмзэг бүлгийн хүмүүсийг хамгаалах нийгмийн халамжийн тогтолцоог шаардаж байгаа юм.

Нийгмийн халамжийн тогтолцоо хэр сайн ажиллаж байгааг дүгнэхийн тулд нийгмийн халамж юунд зарцуулагдаж байгааг, ядуу, эмзэг гэр бүлд зарцуулагдаж байна уу, үүнээс тэд хангалттай хамгаалалтыг авч чадаж байна уу гэдгийг авч үзэх хэрэгтэй. 

Social welfare programs in Mongolia - are they helping the poor?

Junko Onishi's picture
Also available in: Mongolian

Mongolia’s current economic situation is characterized by a combination of falling commodity prices and slowing growth. This heightens the need for the country’s social welfare system to protect the poor and the vulnerable from the threatened fall in incomes.

To assess how well the system is performing, it is necessary to consider Mongolia’s spending on social welfare - whether it is directed towards poor and vulnerable households, and if the benefits provide effective and adequate protection.

Далайн хар шуурга, циклонгүй Улаанбаатар хотод үерийн аюул нүүрлэнэ гэв үү, үгүй байлгүй дээ?

Artessa Saldivar-Sali's picture
Also available in: English
Улаанбаатар хотын үерийн эрсдэлийг багасгах нь

Циклонд хамгийн өртөмтгий Манила хотод төрж өссөн миний хувьд  Монгол Улсад  анх ирэхдээ зах хязгааргүй  өргөн уудам тал нутаг, ,  хөх  тэнгэрээр нүдээ хужирлана  гэж бодож байлаа. Үнэхээр  өргөн уудам тал нутаг , хөх цэнхэр тэнгэр  миний нүдийг хужирласан, харин Монгол Улсын  нийслэл Улаанбаатар бол миний урд өмнө нь  амьдарч, ажиллаж байсан олон хотоос нэг их ялгаагүй юм байна  гэдгийг төдөлгүй ойлгосон.
 
Энд  хурдацтай өсөн дэвжиж байгаа  хотын дуу  чимээ бий. Хөдөө орон нутгаас илүү боломжтой амьдралын төлөө хүмүүс  Улаанбаатар хотод шилжин ирсээр байгаа бөгөөд  Монгол улсын  нийт хүн амын гуравны нэгийнх нь гэр орон болжээ. Улаанбаатар космополитан хот болсоор, энд куба тогоочтой куба зоогийн газар хүртэл бий бас Азийн бусад хотуудын  нэгэн адил Улаанбаатарт ч үер усны аюул тохиолддог.
 
1953-2013 онуудад тохиолдсон  34 үерийн 60 хувь нь 2000-2009 оны хооронд болжээ. 1966 оны үерийг “үнэхээр  томоохон хэмжээний үер” байсан гэдгийг монголчууд одоо ч гэсэн  дурсан ярьдаг . Гэвч  тэр үеп  Улаанбаатар хотын хүн ам ердөө 200.000 байсан бол одоо нэг сая 300 мянганд хүрээд байна.    

Flood risk in dry Ulaanbaatar of Mongolia? Really? Really

Artessa Saldivar-Sali's picture
Also available in: Mongolian
Making Ulaanbaatar More Resilient to Floods

After growing up in Manila, one of the densest and most cyclone-prone cities in the world, I expected my first visit to Mongolia to be filled with vast plains and blue skies. The plains and skies did not disappoint – but I quickly learned that Ulaanbaatar, the country’s capital, is a city that is rapidly becoming like many other cities where I have lived and worked.
 
There is the unmistakable buzz of a place that is growing, and growing fast.  People move to Ulaanbaatar from the countryside for the opportunities that open up to them, with the city now home to nearly half the country’s population. It is becoming more cosmopolitan every time I go – there is even a Cuban restaurant with a Cuban chef. And, like many other cities in Asia, Ulaanbaatar has floods.
 
Out of the 34 floods recorded from 1915-2013, about 60% occurred from 2000-2009. The 1966 flood stood out in collective memory as being the last “big one.” Yet in 1966, Ulaanbaatar only had a population of over 200,000, now it has over 1.3 million people.  

In Mongolia, better provider payment systems help maintain universal coverage and improve care

Aparnaa Somanathan's picture
Co-authored with Cheryl Cashin, Senior Program Director, Results for Development
 
In the early 1990s, after 70 years of a socialist system, Mongolia transitioned to a market economy and embarked on reform across all sectors, including health. Since that time, the health system has gradually moved from a centralized “Semashko-style” model to a somewhat more decentralized financing and service delivery, with a growing role for private sector providers and private out-of-pocket financing.
 

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