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economic forecast

Debating Cambodia's growth: A tsunami in 2009?

Stéphane Guimbert's picture

The global slowdown is hurting Cambodia's tourism industry, with fewer visitors in late 2008 than in the same period of 2007. Image credit: flydime at Flickr under a Creative Commons license.
Cambodia was one of the few Asian countries saved from the December 2004 devastating tsunami. But, a few days ago, at the Cambodia Economic Forum, panelists suggested that the economic tsunami – or various synonyms – would not spare Cambodia.

It's been a couple of months since the World Bank prepared the "perfect storm" report on the recent economic developments in East Asia. Our view at the time was that the crisis would reveal some of Cambodia's economic vulnerabilities – i.e. its lack of export diversification and its extreme reliance on foreign investment for growth. I think that this is an important lesson from our recent analysis on growth in Cambodia (more on this later).

Our projections for 2009 at the time were just below 5 percent GDP growth. This is consistent with the projections of the Government, the IMF, the Asian Development Bank, and an International Labor Organization (ILO) report on the impact of the crisis released yesterday. The Economist Intelligence Unit has a more pessimistic projection of 1 percent.

So who is right?

Slower growth forecasted in East Asia – but things could be worse

James I Davison's picture

Upon releasing its half-yearly economic report of East Asia and Pacific early today, the World Bank is forecasting slower growth and intensifying economic turmoil in the region’s developing countries. But it could be worse, said Jim Adams, World Bank vice president for the East Asia and Pacific region, quoted in an AP article.

On the eve of the Olympics (I) - China’s economy is humming along

David Dollar's picture

China’s growth has held up well so far in 2008 (take a look at the Bank's Quarterly Update  for more details).  Growth rate for the first half was slightly over 10%.  Recently there has been concern about the slowdown in the growth of exports: from 28% year-on-year increase in May to 18% in June.  But monthly figures are erratic, and I am

New Bank report confirms East Asia remains robust amid global slowdown

Claudia Gabarain's picture

In 2008, growth in China, the rest of East Asia and the Pacific, and other developing regions together will fall from 7.8 percent to a still-strong 6.5 percent while their high-income trading partners like the United States slow to between 1 and 2 percent and import less.

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