In just fifteen years, two billion motor vehicles are projected to inhabit the world’s roads, doubling today’s population. Most of this growth will occur in Asia, with China leading the way. In order to fuel and accommodate these vehicles, large new energy and urban infrastructure investments will be made, locking in escalating greenhouse gas emissions and resource demands through the rest of the century.
The burning questions are: Will tomorrow’s autos in China and elsewhere be as carbon-laden and resource intensive as they are in the US today? And will the cities of India, China, and others follow the sprawled pattern of the US? Or will a new transportation reality emerge in China and throughout the developing world?
Put in these terms, it is imperative that China be a leader in transforming transportation – vehicles, fuels, and mobility. Today’s petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine technology, developed over 100 years ago, must be vastly improved and eventually replaced by 21st century innovations. And infrastructure and land use managers need to resist the forces of sprawl and invest in collective mobility services. Both of these goals are realistic propositions well worth pursuing.