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油价下跌给东亚地区带来机遇

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
图片 "Pro Pit" CC BY-NC-SA 2.0条款下由Aaron Webb提供 。

“绝不让机会从身边溜走,但需三思而后行,”日本的这句谚语对当前的东亚地区尤为适用。

 油价下跌给本地区大部分发展中国家增强经济竞争力、利用全球经济持续复苏势头发展国内经济提供了一大机遇。

2014年中期以来油价下跌了50%以上,这反映出前些年全球尤其是北美地区石油供应持续增长、全球石油生产面临的地缘政治风险降低、石油输出国组织(欧佩克)为保持产量和市场份额而付出的努力以及去年全球产量增幅低于预期。由于油价起码在2016年之前有望保持低位,这些因素有可能持续存在。

日本在内的大部分东亚国家系石油进口国,因而从油价下跌受益。预计这些国家经济增速将加快,通胀水平将降低,经常账户平衡状况将改善。

An opportunity for East Asia in plunging oil prices

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

“Never let an opportunity pass by, but always think twice before acting,” says a Japanese proverb with particular pertinence for East Asia today.

Plunging oil prices present a significant opportunity for most of the region’s developing countries to strengthen the competitiveness of their economies and take advantage of the ongoing global recovery.

The drop in oil prices — over 50% since mid-2014 — reflects several years of increasing oil supply, particularly in North America, along with decreased geopolitical risks to global production, OPEC’s efforts to maintain production levels and market share, and weaker-than-expected global growth last year. These factors are likely to persist, with oil prices expected to remain low through at least 2016.

Most countries in East Asia, including Japan, benefit from the price decline because they are oil importers. They can expect more rapid economic growth, lower inflation and improved current account balances.

Mindanao, the Philippines: From a “dangerous place” to a zone of shared prosperity

Dave Llorito's picture
Bananas for export go through rigorous quality inspection. The plantation employs some 2 thousand workers in Maguindanao, Mindanao.
Bananas for export go through rigorous quality inspection. The plantation employs some 2,000 workers in Maguindanao, Mindanao.

“It was a war zone, one of the most dangerous places on earth.”

That’s how Mr. Resty Kamag, human resource manager of La Frutera plantation based in Datu Paglas (Population: 20,290) in Maguindanao (the Philippines) described the national road traversing the town from the adjacent province.

Residents and travelers, he said, wouldn’t dare pass through the highway after three in the afternoon for fear of getting robbed, ambushed or caught in the crossfire between rebels and government soldiers.

“That was before the company started operations here in 1997,” said Mr. Kamag. La Frutera operates a 1,200-hectare plantation for export bananas in Datu Paglas and neighboring towns, providing jobs to more than 2,000 people.