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How will China’s external current account surplus evolve in the coming years?

Louis Kuijs's picture

How China’s current account surplus will evolve in the coming years is one of the key questions on the economic outlook, both for China itself and for the global economy. China’s increasingly competitive manufacturing sector will continue to power ahead, to expand exports and to gain global market share. At the same time, China’s domestic economy should continue to grow rapidly, thereby drawing imports. However, how this will on balance play out with regard to the current account surplus is less certain. It will largely depend on how much progress is made with rebalancing the economy.

中国经济特区和产业集群的成功与挑战

Douglas Zhihua Zeng 曾智华's picture

(Originally posted in English)

在过去的30年里,中国经济高速增长,创造了人类历史上空前的“发展奇迹”。自1978年实施改革开放政策以来,中国国内生产总值(GDP)保持了9%以上的年均增幅(见表1)。2010年,中国更是超过日本成为全球第二大经济体。

中国经济展望和政策寓意:正常化

Louis Kuijs's picture

(Originally posted in English)

这是我在为撰写新一期《中国经济季报》重新审视中国近期经济发展、前景展望和政策寓意之后写的第一篇博文。在这篇概要之后,过几天我还会写一篇博文探讨关于相对价格的某些有趣的中期趋势以及外贸对中国经济的相对重要性(本期《季报》也讨论了这些问题)。

“正常化”这个词在最近讨论经济增长结构和宏观经济政策立场时大量出现,在中国也一样。但这是难以避免的。在2010年期间,中国的增长结果开始趋向“正常化”,这出现在2009年的投机风潮过后,大规模的政府主导的内需大幅增加抵消了出口的巨大收缩。2010年下半年,宏观经济政策立场也开始回归“正常化”。我猜我们许多人都用“正常化”这个词来形容或者建议采取一种与“正常化”的经济前景相一致的宏观政策立场,而不是采取一种特别紧缩的立场。

China’s economic outlook and policy implications: normalization

Louis Kuijs's picture

(Available in Chinese)

This is the first blog post I write after revisiting China’s recent economic developments, the outlook, and policy implications as part of writing our latest China Quarterly Update. After this general overview I will in a few days write one on some interesting medium term trends on relative prices and the relative importance of external trade in China’s economy (they are also discussed in the Quarterly).

The term “normalization” has been used a lot lately in relation to the composition of growth and macroeconomic policy stance, also in China. But it is hard to avoid it. During 2010, China’s composition of growth started to “normalize”—as in look like it typically does—after the spectacular developments in 2009, when a massive government-led domestic demand surge offset a huge contraction in exports. Later in 2010, the macroeconomic policy stance also started to “normalize”. I guess many of us use the word “normalization” to describe or prescribe a macro policy stance that would be in line with the “normalized” economic outlook, as opposed to a particularly tight stance.

Whither Malaysia’s brain drain?

Philip Schellekens's picture

Brain drain—the migration of talent across borders—has an impact on Malaysia’s aspiration to become a high-income nation. Human capital is the bedrock of the high-income economy. Sustained and skill-intensive growth will require talent going forward. For Malaysia to be successful in its journey to high income, it will need to develop, attract and retain talent. Brain drain does not appear to square with this objective: Malaysia needs talent, but talent seems to be leaving.

Inflation Invasion? Thailand takes on higher global food and fuel prices

Frederico Gil Sander's picture

Higher prices have been making headlines in Thailand. Although wages and farm incomes are up, so are the prices of eggs, milk and fried rice. I am definitely feeling the pinch: the price of my favorite beverage—coconut water—has surged following a beetle infestation.

As prices go up, so does the pressure on the government to reign in the spiraling cost of living. But as we discussed in the recently released Thailand Economic Monitor - April 2011, the current inflation challenge is especially tough to tackle.

中国的食品价格——为何趋涨,今后趋势如何?

Louis Kuijs's picture

 

China’s food prices – why have they trended up and what lies ahead?

 

(Originally posted in English)

食品价格近来备受关注。关注的焦点是近期动态及短期走向,这一点可以理解,但在本文中,我尽力回顾一些长期趋势,以便作出进一步分析预测。


本世纪初以来,食品相关价格趋涨
(见图1)。2000年以来,农业附加值平减指数继上世纪九十年代中后期下滑之后年均上涨了8%。从生产价格指数看,食品价格(出厂价)涨幅要小得多,原因是食品加工业其它投入的价格涨幅较小,同时食品加工生产率迅速提高抑制了食品原材料价格上涨的传递。 

China’s food prices – why have they trended up and what lies ahead?

Louis Kuijs's picture
China’s food prices – why have they trended up and what lies ahead?

(Available in Chinese)

Food prices have received a lot of attention recently. Understandably, much of the attention is on recent developments and short term prospects. But in this blog post I try to look back at some longer term trends, in order to look further ahead.

Since the early 2000s, food related prices have trended up (Figure 1). The deflator of agricultural value added has risen 8% per year on average since 2000, after falling during the second half of the 1990s. Producer Price Index (PPI) food prices (factory gate) have risen much less because prices of other inputs into the food processing industry have gone up less and rapid productivity growth in food processing has dampened the transmission of higher raw food prices.

The middle-income trap, again?

Ivailo Izvorski's picture

The rapidly rising economic weight of developing countries – now in its third decade, rather than a product of the crisis, is notable for several interrelated developments:

• Developing economies as a whole have been growing faster than advanced economies since the 1970s, on both aggregate and per capita terms. (Read more about growth poles - .pdf)

• The margin between these growth rates has risen of late, although growth paths have become more synchronized. Decoupled in trend terms, more coupled in cyclical terms? (There is an abundant discussion of “decoupling”: see one example here and one here)

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