Agriculture

(Originally posted in English)

食品价格近来备受关注。关注的焦点是近期动态及短期走向，这一点可以理解，但在本文中，我尽力回顾一些长期趋势，以便作出进一步分析预测。

本世纪初以来，食品相关价格趋涨（见图1）。2000年以来，农业附加值平减指数继上世纪九十年代中后期下滑之后年均上涨了8%。从生产价格指数看，食品价格（出厂价）涨幅要小得多，原因是食品加工业其它投入的价格涨幅较小，同时食品加工生产率迅速提高抑制了食品原材料价格上涨的传递。 

Remember the food and fuel crisis that preceded the global economic and financial meltdown? Many in the advanced economies have long forgotten it; people in developing countries have very vivid memories. Are we about to relive the crisis? 

As a refresher, the introduction of biofuels mandates in the U.S. and Europe earlier this decade sparked a surge in demand for maize, vegetable oil and sugar cane to be converted to alternative fuels. In fact, most of the increase in global maize production during 2004-07 went for biofuels, as did a third of the increase in vegetable oil production. At the same time, growth in emerging and advanced economies was among the fastest on record, boosting global demand for energy, notably petroleum—which, in turn, made biofuels production more attractive. The third piece of the puzzle consisted of the growing concerns about the U.S. current account deficit and the housing market in the U.S.—which peaked in June 2006—that led to a sustained and unrelenting weakening of the U.S. dollar. 

Where do these three crucial components of the past global food and fuel crisis—biofuel mandates, rapid growth in emerging economies and global demand for energy, and the dollar—stand these days? The biofuels mandates are still there—and in the U.S. alone, the use of biofuels has to treble by 2022. Growth in most emerging economies has recovered to pre-crisis levels, and demand for energy is as insatiable as ever. And after a period of strength during the darkest moments of the global economic and financial crisis, the U.S. dollar has weakened anew.

To a tourist visiting Cambodia, or to a French consumer living in Cambodia (whose food habits require a complement of pasta and potatoes), rice will mainly mean the stunning landscapes of rice fields, yellow at harvest time, bright and liquid during the rainy season, with shades of green meanwhile. But to a Cambodian consumer and to a Cambodian farmer, as well as to their Government (and to the French economist), rice is the staple crop, a possible “white gold” as the Prime Minister once put it, and a major part of a poverty reduction strategy.

On August 17, 2010, the Prime Minister launched a “policy paper on the promotion of paddy production and rice exports” (see announcement). This is a good and promising example of a cluster approach to Cambodia's growth strategy.

Cambodia is an important but still small rice exporter. Cambodia has been an exporter of rice since 2004, but a large part of the exports was unprocessed (paddy) or even smuggled through the border. Yet Cambodia has abundant land and sits in a region that is both fertile for and in high demand of rice (see Chapter 1 of our report on growth).

So far the potential comparative advantage for rice was diluted by various costs, official (e.g. electricity) or unofficial (e.g. illegal check points). Poor coordination of public and private actors was also undermining the potential. For instance weak land titling systems and weak sanitary controls were a constraint that led to limited access to finance, itself contributing to limited value addition. However the significant increase in price in 2008 - and again a rebound in the past few weeks - has drastically changed the economics of the sector.

(Available in: монгол хэл.)

Mongolia is currently experiencing a white "dzud" – a multiple natural disaster consisting of a summer drought resulting in inadequate pasture and production of hay, followed by very heavy winter snow, winds and lower-than-normal temperatures. Dzuds occur when the winter conditions – particularity heavy snow cover – prevent livestock from accessing pasture or from receiving adequate hay and fodder.