Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

Recipe for economic growth in the Philippines: invest in infrastructure, education, and job creation

The report says that a highly-educated, healthier and skilled workforce will enhance productivity.

Economic news coming from the Philippines is surprisingly positive, and this has not gone unnoticed in international circles, judging by the number of inquiries we—the World Bank economic team in Manila that I am now leading—are getting. Our GDP growth forecast for 2012 (included in the new Philippines Quarterly Update report) is a solid 4.6 percent, while the first quarter saw an even more respectable growth rate of 6.4 percent. Other good news: foreign direct investment doubled in the first quarter, exports were up by 18 percent, and two ratings agencies upgraded their outlook on the Philippines.

However, the economy faces two challenges going forward: it will need to defend itself against a global slowdown, and it will also need to create a more inclusive growth pattern—one that creates more and better jobs, because performance on job creation has not been part of the positive news coming from the Philippines for quite a while now.

Last week the World Bank's Chief Economist for the East Asia and Pacific region took questions on the economic prospects for the region during a one-hour live chat.

Available in English

Мөнхийн хөх тэнгэртэй Монгол орноос чимэгтэй сайхан мэдээнүүд сонсогдож эхэллээ. Энэ оны гуравдугаар улиралд эдийн засаг 20.8 хувь өсч, хоёрдугаар улиралын 17.3 хувийн өсөлтийг ч гүйцсэн нь урьд өмнө байгаагүй эдийн засгийн тэсрэлтийг бий болголоо ( өмнөх жилийн мөн үетэй харьцуулсан өсөлт). Энэ өсөлт нь уул уурхайн салбар, ялангуяа 2012 онд үйлдвэрлэлт нь эхлэх алт зэсний дэлхийн хэмжээний орд болох Оюу толгойгоос үүдэлтэй ч бусад олон жижиг уул уурхайнууд бүрэн хүчин чадлаараа ажиллаж байгаа учир хамрах хүрээ нь өргөн байна. Үйлдвэрлэлийн салбар ч сайн байна.

Available in: монгол хэл

There is good news coming out of Mongolia, the land of the eternal blue skies. The economy racked up a second quarter of high growth: the third quarter came in at 20.8 percent, topping the equally amazing second quarter of 17.3 percent (year-on-year GDP growth), as discussed in the World Bank's latest Mongolia Quarterly Update. And while this growth spurt originated in the mining sector, with Oyu Tolgoi—a mega copper and gold mine—getting ready to start producing in 2012 and a whole battery of other, smaller mines producing at full capacity, the high growth is quite broad-based. Even manufacturing is doing well.

Umbrella factory in Chiang Mai (courtesy of rustybadger under a Creative Commons license). Thailand's workers need to contribute more complex tasks to the su

How China’s current account surplus will evolve in the coming years is one of the key questions on the economic outlook, both for China itself and for the global economy. China’s increasingly competitive manufacturing sector will continue to power ahead, to expand exports and to gain global market share. At the same time, China’s domestic economy should continue to grow rapidly, thereby drawing imports. However, how this will on balance play out with regard to the current account surplus is less certain. It will largely depend on how much progress is made with rebalancing the economy.

Price increases continue to make headlines in Thailand.

(Originally posted in English)

在过去的30年里，中国经济高速增长，创造了人类历史上空前的“发展奇迹”。自1978年实施改革开放政策以来，中国国内生产总值(GDP)保持了9%以上的年均增幅(见表1)。2010年，中国更是超过日本成为全球第二大经济体。

(Originally posted in English)

这是我在为撰写新一期《中国经济季报》重新审视中国近期经济发展、前景展望和政策寓意之后写的第一篇博文。在这篇概要之后，过几天我还会写一篇博文探讨关于相对价格的某些有趣的中期趋势以及外贸对中国经济的相对重要性（本期《季报》也讨论了这些问题）。

“正常化”这个词在最近讨论经济增长结构和宏观经济政策立场时大量出现，在中国也一样。但这是难以避免的。在2010年期间，中国的增长结果开始趋向“正常化”，这出现在2009年的投机风潮过后，大规模的政府主导的内需大幅增加抵消了出口的巨大收缩。2010年下半年，宏观经济政策立场也开始回归“正常化”。我猜我们许多人都用“正常化”这个词来形容或者建议采取一种与“正常化”的经济前景相一致的宏观政策立场，而不是采取一种特别紧缩的立场。

(Available in Chinese)

This is the first blog post I write after revisiting China’s recent economic developments, the outlook, and policy implications as part of writing our latest China Quarterly Update. After this general overview I will in a few days write one on some interesting medium term trends on relative prices and the relative importance of external trade in China’s economy (they are also discussed in the Quarterly).

The term “normalization” has been used a lot lately in relation to the composition of growth and macroeconomic policy stance, also in China. But it is hard to avoid it. During 2010, China’s composition of growth started to “normalize”—as in look like it typically does—after the spectacular developments in 2009, when a massive government-led domestic demand surge offset a huge contraction in exports. Later in 2010, the macroeconomic policy stance also started to “normalize”. I guess many of us use the word “normalization” to describe or prescribe a macro policy stance that would be in line with the “normalized” economic outlook, as opposed to a particularly tight stance.