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加强东亚太平洋地区减少灾害风险的时候到了

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
每当我听说又发生了自然灾害——人员伤亡,家园被毁,生计丧失——我就知道我们必须要减少这些悲惨后果,而不是坐等灾害再次来袭。

今年在日本仙台举办的世界减少灾害风险大会将给我们这个机会。此次大会寻求落实《兵库行动框架》后续框架,为政策制定者和国际利益攸关方管理灾害风险提供指导。此次大会是为减少灾害风险和战胜贫困设立新的里程碑的一个契机。

自然灾害的代价已经十分高昂——在过去30年里人员和财产损失高达4万亿美元,对发展努力造成了巨大的打击。
 

Now is the time to strengthen disaster risk reduction in East Asia and the Pacific

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
In PDF: Korean | Khmer

Every time I learn of another natural disaster – the people killed and injured, homes destroyed, livelihoods lost – I know we must act to reduce the tragic impact instead of waiting for the next disaster strikes.

We have that chance with this year’s World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, which seeks to finalize the successor to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2) that guides policymakers and international stakeholders in managing disaster risk. The conference is an opportunity to set new milestones in disaster risk reduction and fighting poverty.

The cost of natural disasters already is high – 2.5 million people and $4 trillion lost over the past 30 years with a corresponding blow to development efforts.

In Asia, rapid urbanization combined with poor planning dramatically increases the exposure of cities, particularly those along densely populated coasts and river basins. Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 7,350 people in the Philippines in 2013, directly contributed to a 1.2 percent rise in poverty.
 

Bản đồ hóa chỉ số nghèo Việt Nam

Gabriel Demombynes's picture
Also available in: English

Chúng tôi vừa ra mắt trang web MapVietnam tại địa chỉ www.worldbank.org/mapvietnam/ trong đó cung cấp số liệu kinh tế xã hội cấp tỉnh và huyện của Việt Nam. Mục đích của trang web là cung cấp thông tin cho các phóng viên, các nhà hoạch định chính sách, nhà nghiên cứu, và tất cả những người dân cần thông tin về tình hình kinh tế xã hội tại địa phương. Bản đồ sẽ cung cấp các thông tin đa dạng về Việt Nam mà nếu chỉ nhìn vào con số thống kê tổng hợp thì rất khó để hình dung. Thông tin trên trang web được cung cấp cả bằng tiếng Việt và tiếng Anh.

Mapping Vietnam’s Poverty Indicators

Gabriel Demombynes's picture
Also available in: Tiếng Việt

We just launched the new MapVietnam website at www.worldbank.org/mapvietnam/ which provides access to socioeconomic data at the province and district level in both English and Vietnamese. The site is intended to be a resource for journalists, policymakers, researchers, and citizens looking for information on social and economic situations at a local level. The maps illustrate Vietnam’s wide diversity, which can be lost in aggregate statistics.  It is available in both English and Vietnamese.

Kenapa kita perlu #Get2Equal

Sri Mulyani Indrawati's picture
Gaji perempuan sering lebih rendah dari pada laki-laki, sementara perempuan juga mengerjakan sebagian besar pekerjaan yang tidak dibayar. © Mariana Ceratti/World Bank

Halaman ini dalam: English | Español | Français | العربية | 中文

​​Perempuan kian mengemuka sebagai suatu kekuatan besar dalam mendorong perubahan. Negara-negara yang telah berinvestasi dalam pendidikan bagi perempuan muda serta meniadakan batasan hukum yang selama ini menghalangi perempuan dalam mewujudkan potensial mereka, kini mulai merasakan manfaat dari kebijakan tersebut.

Ambillah, misalnya, di negara-negara Amerika Latin. Lebih dari 70 juta perempuan telah memasuki dunia kerja dalam beberapa tahun belakangan. Dua pertiga dari peningkatan kesertaan perempuan di dunia kerja dalam dua dekade terakhir dapat diatribusikan kepada ketersediaan pendidikan yang lebih tinggi dan kenyataan bahwa perempuan menikah lebih lambat dan memiliki jumlah anak yang lebih sedikit. Sebagai akibatnya, antara tahun 2000 dan 2010, pendapatan perempuan menyumbangkan sekitar 30 persen penurunan kemiskinan ekstrem di kawasan tersebut.

Pacific connected: A regional approach to development challenges facing island nations

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture



Dots on the world map – they are coral atolls and volcanic islands spread across a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean with names as exotic as their turquoise water, white sand and tropical foliage.
Twelve Pacific Island countries are members of the World Bank. Between them they are home to about 11 million people, much less than one percent of the global population.

One of them, Kiribati, consists of 33 atolls and coral islets, spread across an area larger than India, but with a land mass smaller than New Delhi. With less than 10,000 inhabitants, Tuvalu is the World Bank’s smallest member country.
Despite such remote and tiny landscapes, the Pacific Island countries – including Fiji, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, the Federated States of Micronesia and Timor-Leste – represent far more than meets the eye.

Revisi PDB Indonesia: Potret yang Lebih Tepat

Alex Sienaert's picture
Also available in: English



Badan Pusat Statistik telah mengeluarkan statistik triwulan nasional pada 5 Februari 2015. Biasanya data yang diterbitkan secara triwulanan akan mengundang keingintahuan yang besar (setidaknya bagi para ekonom makro dan pengamat ekonomi yang selalu haus akan perkembangan data terbaru tren pertumbuhan jangka pendek). Namun data yang dihasilkan BPS kali ini mempunyai kekhususan karena selain memberikan data triwulan  tahun 2014, juga terdapat dua revisi signifikan terhadap statistik PDB Indonesia yaitu: (1) menggeser tahun dasar perhitungan PDB dari tahun 2000 menjadi 2010, dan (2) mengadopsi metodologi dan presentasi statisik yang jauh lebih baru (yaitu memperbaharui perhitungan neraca nasional dari Sistem SNA 1993 menjadi SNA 2008).[1]

Dengan adanya revisi ini, hal baru apa yang bisa diketahui tentang perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia yang tidak kita ketahui sebelumnya? Satu perubahan yang langsung terlihat adalah: output total dengan harga nominal saat ini menjadi sekitar 4,4 persen lebih besar dibanding estimasi pada tahun 2014 (dan rata-rata 5,2 persen lebih besar pada periode 2010-2014). Hal ini merupakan perubahan yang signifikan menambah Rp 448 triliun, atau sekitar USD 35,3 milyar pada besaran estimasi ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2014. Menurut BPS, sekitar sepertiga output tambahan tersebut adalah hasil penyertaan beberapa aktivitas ekonomi baru di bawah SNA 2008, dan sekitar dua-pertiga berasal dari perbaikan pengukuran.

Indonesia’s GDP revision: a crisper snapshot

Alex Sienaert's picture
Also available in: Bahasa Indonesia



Indonesia’s national statistics agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released quarterly national accounts statistics on February 5. Any quarterly data release creates a flurry of interest (well, at least amongst macroeconomists and economy-watchers hungry for the latest update on near-term growth trends). But this is a particularly important release because, as well as providing data for the final quarter of 2014, it also incorporates two significant revisions to Indonesia’s GDP statistics: (1) it  shifts the basis of the computation from the year 2000 to 2010, and (2) it adopts a significantly updated methodology and presentation of the statistics (updating Indonesia’s national accounts from the 1993 System of National Accounts [SNA] to SNA 2008).[1]

What do these revisions tell us about Indonesia’s economy that we didn’t know before? One change immediately stands out: total output in current prices is about 4.4 percent larger than previously estimated in 2014 (and 5.2 percent larger on average over 2010-2014). This is a significant change, adding IDR 448 trillion, or about USD 35.5 billion at the current market exchange rate, to the estimated size of the economy as of 2014. Roughly a third of the extra measured output is due to the incorporation of new kinds of economic activity under SNA 2008, and about two-thirds comes from more accurate measurements of previously-measured kinds of output, according to BPS.  

油价下跌给东亚地区带来机遇

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
图片 "Pro Pit" CC BY-NC-SA 2.0条款下由Aaron Webb提供 。

“绝不让机会从身边溜走,但需三思而后行,”日本的这句谚语对当前的东亚地区尤为适用。

 油价下跌给本地区大部分发展中国家增强经济竞争力、利用全球经济持续复苏势头发展国内经济提供了一大机遇。

2014年中期以来油价下跌了50%以上,这反映出前些年全球尤其是北美地区石油供应持续增长、全球石油生产面临的地缘政治风险降低、石油输出国组织(欧佩克)为保持产量和市场份额而付出的努力以及去年全球产量增幅低于预期。由于油价起码在2016年之前有望保持低位,这些因素有可能持续存在。

日本在内的大部分东亚国家系石油进口国,因而从油价下跌受益。预计这些国家经济增速将加快,通胀水平将降低,经常账户平衡状况将改善。

An opportunity for East Asia in plunging oil prices

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Image "Pro Pit" by Aaron Webb is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

“Never let an opportunity pass by, but always think twice before acting,” says a Japanese proverb with particular pertinence for East Asia today.

Plunging oil prices present a significant opportunity for most of the region’s developing countries to strengthen the competitiveness of their economies and take advantage of the ongoing global recovery.

The drop in oil prices — over 50% since mid-2014 — reflects several years of increasing oil supply, particularly in North America, along with decreased geopolitical risks to global production, OPEC’s efforts to maintain production levels and market share, and weaker-than-expected global growth last year. These factors are likely to persist, with oil prices expected to remain low through at least 2016.

Most countries in East Asia, including Japan, benefit from the price decline because they are oil importers. They can expect more rapid economic growth, lower inflation and improved current account balances.

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