Live discussion on China with David Dollar and Louis Kuijs - Transcript

Dear Mr. Dollars and Mr. Kuijis: Thank you very much for your great contribution to help China, my birth hometown in the past years and future. Mr. Kujis and I may be neighbour students when I pursue my second master degree in University College London (UCL), London, England in 1996-1997. Would you please share your expert view/solutions for the following 2 questions I worry about too much for 1.6 bilions people in China, and 6.5 billions people in the World, and billions of animals in the Earth? 1. How to let China, the second top pulluter in the World, and the other 199 countries go to a Sustainable Development Patten i.e. hamany balance of economics, social and environmental components, rather than the traditional focusing on Economic Development ignoring or at least not paying enough attention on social balance and environmental pollution responsibilities for China, and the whole world? 2. How to curb the slowing down or the coming economics depression of United States, North America, G8s, the World and China? I look forward to hearing from you as soon as possible Best regards and great thanks again! If any help needed in Vancouver, Canada, please drop me a line and I will try my best to help you, lke the other bank's staff, as good friends.

Dear Susan, regarding your questions: 1. How to let China, the second top pulluter in the World, and the other 199 countries go to a Sustainable Development Patten i.e. hamany balance of economics, social and environmental components, rather than the traditional focusing on Economic Development ignoring or at least not paying enough attention on social balance and environmental pollution responsibilities for China, and the whole world? China is still a relatively poor country and like other developing countries it has a legitimate interest in growing fast and raising people's income. However, with so many developing countries growing quickly now there is real pressure on global resources such as water, oil, and the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb carbon. The best way to ensure more efficient use of water and oil is to price them properly; with higher prices, people will conserve and new technologies will be invented. Carbon emissions pose a special problem because the world will have to agree on a target for reducing emissions and develop a program to meet the target. I favor a system in which rights to emit are allocated, and then there is a market for emission rights. If this is properly organized it will be possible for China and other developing countries to meet their development objectives, while the world also pursues a sustainable environmental path. 2. How to curb the slowing down or the coming economics depression of United States, North America, G8s, the World and China? The world economy is slowing down, primarily because of the bursting of the housing bubble in the US and its spillover effects on other economies. But it is premature to talk about depression. We expect slower but still positive growth in the US and in the whole world in 2008 and 2009. The challenge for developing countries is to continue to grow well as the US slows. So far China has been able to do this through strong domestic demand. But it is still an uncertain year. Much of that demand is for investment, and that may slow as global prospects get worse. To maintain solid global growth we need overall consumption and demand to remain strong in China and other developing countries. China is in a good position now because its macroeconomic policies have been quite restrained. If growth slows too much, it could easily stimulate its economy with government spending. So I remain cautiously optimistic for growth in both China and the world.