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Will South Asia Take Advantage of its Export Opportunity?

Markus Kitzmuller's picture
The Port of Chittagong at night in Bangladesh. South Asia has a great opportunity to increase exports to realize greater growth and prosperity.
​Photo by: Shahadat Rahman Shemul 

Watching export growth across South Asia surge in the recent past leads one to ask the obvious but crucial question: Will this trend continue in the longer term and is South Asia on its way to become an export powerhouse, or has it just been a short term, one-off spurt provoked by external forces?

Clearly, the rupee depreciation following tapering talk in May 2013 and the recovery in the US constituted favorable tailwinds; however, our analysis in the fall 2014 edition of the South Asia Economic Focus finds that there are more permanent factors at play as well. South Asia is no exception to the trend across developing countries of increasing importance of exports for economic growth. While starting from a low base, the region saw one of the starkest increases in exports to GDP, pushing from 8.5 percent in 1990 to 23 percent in 2013.

Boosting South Asian Trade – Carpe Diem!

Sanjay Kathuria's picture
sar-trade-manufacturing
Ismail Ferdous/World Bank

South Asia’s Commerce Ministers meet in Thimphu on July 24. Getting there would not have been easy for many of them, with no direct flights between Thimphu and four of the seven capitals. In June, when some of us convened for a regional meeting in Kathmandu, our Pakistani colleagues had to take a 20 hour flight from Karachi to Dubai in order to get to Kathmandu! This is symptomatic of the overall state of economic engagement within South Asia—in trade in goods and services, foreign direct investment and tourism.

South Asian countries’ trade policies remain inward-looking compared to other regions, and there are even bigger barriers to trade within the region. Today, South Asia today is less economically integrated than it was 50 years ago. Figure 1 below shows that intra-regional trade in South Asia accounts for less than 5 percent of total trade, lower than any other region. 

July 18, 2014: This Week in #SouthAsiaDev

Mary Ongwen's picture
We've rounded up 22 tweets, posts, links, and +1's on South Asia-related development news, innovation and social good that caught our eye this week. Countries included: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal

July 4, 2014: This Week in #SouthAsiaDev

Mary Ongwen's picture
We've rounded up 20 tweets, posts, links, and +1's on South Asia-related development news, innovation and social good that caught our eye this week. Countries included: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal

The Downside of Proximity

Sanjay Kathuria's picture

 

Buy a leather case for your wife’s smartphone on Amazon, select shipping from China with an estimated delivery time of 4-6 weeks, and then be pleasantly surprised when it turns up on your Virginia doorstep in 11 days.  The marvels of the modern age – of technology, globalization, and shrinking distances.

Where does South Asia stand on export delivery? Figure 1 illustrates that compared to other economic units around the globe, it is a lot more difficult to trade with(in) SAFTA (South Asia Free Trade Agreement). It also shows that bureaucratic hurdles and the time it takes to trade go hand-in-hand. While the region does relatively well on trade with Europe or East Asia, intra-South Asian trade has remained low and costly.  It costs South Asian countries more to trade with their immediate neighbors, compared to their costs to trade with distant Brazil (see below)!  In fact, it is cheaper for South Asian countries to export to anywhere else in the world than to export to each other (Figure 3).  In other words, South Asia has converted its proximity into a handicap.   

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