While many impacts of climate change are already evident around the world, the worse is still to come. Having a clear picture of future risks is essential to spur action now on a scale that matches the problem. The World Bank has prepared the following infographic to communicate the risks for one of the world’s most vulnerable countries—Bangladesh.
The data comes from the 2013 World Bank report Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. This report combines a literature review and original scientific modeling to build on a previous effort that found that the world will become 4°C (7.2°F) hotter during this century in the absence of deep and fast cuts to global carbon emissions. In this scenario, hotter local temperatures, greater water challenges, higher cyclone risks, and lower crop yields will create a hotspot of risks for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh already has a hot climate, with summer temperatures that can hit 45°C. Heat waves will break new records in a 4°C hotter world, with 7 out of 10 summers being abnormally hot. Northern Bangladesh will shift to a new climatic regime, with temperatures above any levels seen in the past 100 years and monthly deviations five to six times beyond the standard.
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A smiling Mosammet Sukkur Jahan, walks to her thatched home in Datiar Char (shoal) in northern Bangladesh to prepare lunch for her family. While eating, Jahan and her neighbors Sharifa, Amena, and Halima were at ease as flood water rushed around their homes located in the middle of vast Teesta River during August and September 2014. They live on a shoal, which is an elevated sandbar that keeps their homes dry.
Chars or Shoals form through siltation along riverbeds. The constant interplay of erosion and accretion creates and sustains the shoals. There are mainly three types of chars: dead, mature, and running. Dead chars are usually permanent land formations. Mature chars are the ones that have not faced any major changes for 10-15 years. Running chars face regular changes and continuous emerge and disappear. The emergence and erosion determines the intensity of vulnerability in the ‘chars’. Typically a new char land requires at least 10 years of continuous presence before it becomes habitable for people.
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Water is an essential part of life and roughly one in ten of the world’s population—748 million people—do not have access to safe water. In South Asia, about 1.5 billion people are affected by water stress and scarcity, due to increasing demand for water resources; as the climate changes, this may worsen the situation.
Treating water as a precious natural resource important for all, brings new perspective to sustainable water resource management and long-term sustainable growth in the Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin both upstream in India and downstream in Bangladesh. A World Bank initiative serves as a linchpin for developing an inclusive analytical framework that promotes access to water, improved efficiency, climate resilience and poverty alleviation in South Asia. So, the question arises: Is this too ambitious and is it achievable?