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South Asia: A bright spot in darkening economic skies?

Hartwig Schafer's picture
South Asia is set to remain relatively insulated from some of the rising uncertainties that are looming large on the global economic horizon. The region will retain its top spot as the world’s fastest-growing region. The Siddhirganj Power Project in Bangladesh. Credit: Ismail Ferdous/World Bank

If, like me, you’re a firm believer in New Year’s resolutions, early January ushers in the prospect of renewed energy and exciting opportunities. And as tradition has it, it’s also a time to enter the prediction game.
 
Sadly, when it comes to the global economy, this year’s outlook is taking a somber turn.
 
In the aptly titled Darkening Skies, the World Bank’s new edition of its twice-a-year Global Economic Prospects report shows that risks are looming large on the economic horizon.
 
To sum up:  In emerging market and developing economies, the lingering effects of recent financial market stress on several large economies, a further deceleration in commodity exporters are likely to stall growth at a weaker-than-expected 4.2 percent this year.
 
On a positive note, South Asia is set to remain relatively insulated from some of these rising global uncertainties and will retain its top spot as the world’s fastest-growing region.
 
Bucking the global decelerating trend, growth in South Asia is expected to accelerate to 7.1 percent in 2019 from 6.9 percent in the year just ended, bolstered in part by stronger investments and robust consumption.  

Among the region’s largest economies, India is forecast to grow at 7.5 percent in fiscal year 2019-20 while Bangladesh is expected to moderate to 7 percent in fiscal year 2018-19. Sri Lanka is seen speeding up slightly to 4 percent in 2019.
 
Notably, and despite increasing conflicts and growing fragility, Afghanistan is expected to increase its growth to  2.7 percent rate this year.

In this otherwise positive outlook, Pakistan’s growth is projected to slow to 3.7 percent in fiscal year 2018-19 as the country is tightening its financial conditions to help counter rising inflation and external vulnerabilities.

However, activity is projected to rebound and average 4.6 percent over the medium term.

South Asia's new superfood or just fishy business?

Pawan Patil's picture
Across South Asia, four known species of indigenous, fully mature, small food-fish – now dubbed ‘NutriFish’ have nutritional and health benefits for pregnant and lactating women and young children when consumed over the first one thousand days. Here, children from Kothi, Odisha in India show their curiosity and share their excitement with a new kind of harvest happening in their village. Credit: Arun Padiyar
Kale, Kefir, and Quinoa have now joined the ranks of better-known foods like Blueberries, Orange Sweet Potato, and Salmon on family dinner tables across the world.

Considered superior for their health and nutrition benefits, these so-called ‘Superfoods’, often considered “new” by the public are now ever-popularized by celebrity chefs and have become all the rage of foodies from San Francisco to Singapore.   

We live in a world of paradox, where old world and almost forgotten food like Quinoa (which dates back as a staple food over three thousand years to Andean civilization but largely disappeared with the arrival of the Spanish) is now back on the menu.  

Salmon, a staple part of Nordic diets from paleolithic times and woven into the culture of native populations across northwestern Canada and many other superfoods share comparable stories.

And, there are many other old world foods, indigenously known, disappearing but not fully forgotten, yet to be re-discovered.

Food is also now advancing to the front-line of the war on poverty

A health and human capital crisis is now sweeping the world, and a lack of diverse, accessible, affordable, and available nourishing foods is increasingly blamed.  

For example, obesity, from poor diet and poor exercise has tripled since 1975 to almost two billion people today.  

Undernutrition contributes to 45 percent of all deaths of children under five years old (3.5 million each year), much of it avoidable, but difficult to detect as it remains “hidden.”  

Policy makers and stewards of national economies are starting to wake up to the fact that poor nutrition has massive economic implications too, reducing GDP by 3-11 percent, depending on the country. 

While economies such as Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan may look strong, just as bellies look full, critical micronutrients and vitamins, essential for healthy physical and cognitive development over the first 1,000 days of life are largely missing from diets of many developing countries and are a proven drag to educational attainment and economic prosperity.  

And parents, from both rich and poor nations alike, seem to know something is not quite right. 

If healthier food choices that are accessible, affordable, and readily available are better known, would parents purchase such food from the market for their families?     

With a small grant from the World Bank-administered South Asia Food and Nutrition Initiative (SAFANSI) supported by the EU and the United Kingdom, a partnership with WorldFish was established to test this premise.  

A 60 second TV spot, a collaboration between scientists, economists, a private sector digital media company, broadcasters and the Government of Bangladesh, was created and broadcast across the nation on two occasions and watched by over 25 million people.  

A parallel radio program was also developed and aired reaching millions more, particularly the rural poor and marginalized communities.
 
NutriFish1000 TV

 

Moving Afghanistan’s Bamyan province forward

Mohammad Tahir Zuhair's picture
Also available in: دری | پښتو
View of Bamyan Province, Afghanistan
View of Bamyan city, Bamyan Province. Photo Credit: Rumi Consultancy​/ World Bank

When people think of Afghanistan, what comes to their minds are images of decades of war and insecurity.

True, Afghanistan has suffered a long history of upheaval

But there has been significant progress in rebuilding a strong, independent, and modern nation since 2001.

And in light of our nation’s turbulent history, it is sometimes easy to forget how far Afghanistan has come.

Just two month ago in October, over four million voters cast their ballots in parliamentary elections—with millions more looking forward to voting in the upcoming presidential election in 2019.

Unforgettably, 2018 also brought the unprecedented three-day ceasefire during Eid, a rare glimpse of complete peace that continues to give hope to many of us.

As Governor of Bamyan Province, one of my goals is to present a different image of my country to the world—one of progress and possibility in the face of adversity.

Many people have never heard of Bamyan. Neither do they know its longstanding and well-deserved reputation as one of Afghanistan’ safest provinces.

Our residents take pride in the fact that we haven’t experienced chaos, war, or insurgency against the government in 17 years.

And as Governor, I have witnessed the importance residents put on civil society, which has been vital to implementing successful development projects in the province.

بامیان در مسیر پیشرفت و تحول

Mohammad Tahir Zuhair's picture
Also available in: English | پښتو
View of Bamyan Province, Afghanistan
نمای شهر بامیان. عکس: شرکت مشورتی رومی/بانک جهانی

وقتی مردم در مورد افغانستان فکر میکنند، آن چه در وحلۀ نخست به ذهن شان خطور میکند، متاسفانه همانا دهه های جنگ و ناامنی میباشد.
 
اینکه افغانستان توأم شاهد دگرگونی ها و ناهنجاری های متداوم بوده و هنوز هم با چالش ها و مشکلات زیادی مواجه است، یک واقعیت انکار ناپذیر محسوب میگردد.
 
اما باید این واقعیت را درک کرد، که از سال ۲۰۰۱ میلادی بدینسو، افغانستان اقدامات لازم را در راستای ایجاد  یک جامعۀ پیشرفته و مرفه رویدست گرفته است.
 
با توجه به رویداد های ناگوار تاریخی که ما همواره با آن مواجه بوده ایم، اکثراً فراموش میکنیم که افغانستان کدام مسیری مملو از موانع را پیموده است.
 
دُرست دو ماه قبل، یعنی بتاریخ ۲۸ میزان ۱۳۹۷، بیش از چهار میلیون افغان درانتخابات ولسی جرگه اشتراک نموده و به کاندیدان مورد نظر خود رای دادند. این در حالیست که قرار است میلیون ها افغان در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری سال ۱۳۹۸ نیز اشتراک ورزند.
 
شایان ذکر است که مردم افغانستان در سال ۲۰۱۸ شاهد برقراری نخستین آتش بس سه روزه برای اولین بار با طالبان در روز های عید سعید فطر بودند، که متعاقب آن یک چشم انداز امیدوار کنندۀ برای تأمین صلح درازمدت در اذهان عامه تداعی گردیده است.
 
منحیث والی بامیان یکی از اهداف من این است که یک تصویر متفاوتی از کشور خود به جهانیان ارایه نمایم – تصویریکه این واقعیت یعنی: علی االرغم شرایط دشوار، پیشرفت و کامیابی نیز ممکن است، باشد.

بامیان د پرمختګ او تحول په لوري

Mohammad Tahir Zuhair's picture
Also available in: English | دری
View of Bamyan Province, Afghanistan
د بامیان ښار منظره. انځور: د رومي مشورتي شرکت/ نړیوال بانک

کله چې خلک د افغانستان په اړه فکر کوي، څه یې چې په لومړۍ شیبه کې په ذهن کې ورګرځي، له بده مرغه هماغه د جنګ او ناامنۍ لسیزې  دي.
 
د داسې واقعیت څخه هم نه شو انکار کولی چې افغانستان د دوامدارو تاوتریخوالي او ګډوډیو شاهد پاتې شوی دی او لا هم له زیاتو ننګونو او ستونزو سره مخ دی.
 
خو باید دا واقعیت درک کړو چې له ۲۰۰۱ زېږدیز کال را په دې خوا، افغانستان د یوې هوسا او پرمختللې ټولنې د رامنځته کولو په لاره کې لازم کارونه تر لاس لاندې نیولي دي.
 
هغو بدو تاریخي پېښوته په کتو سره چې موږ تل ورسره مخ یو، اکثره وختونه دا هېروو چې افغانستان ده پرمختګ په لور یوه اوږدهلارې څخه را تېر شوی دی.
 
پوره دوه میاشتې مخکې، یعنې د ۱۳۹۷ د تلې په ۲۸ مه نېته، تر څلور میلیونه زیاتو افغانانو د ولسي جرګې په ټاکنو کې برخه واخیسته او د خپلې خوښې کاندیدانو ته یې رایې ورکړې اومیلیونونه افغانان په تمه دي چې د ۱۳۹۸ کال په ولسمشریزو  ټاکنو کې ګډون وکړي.
 
د یادولو ده چې د افغانستان  خلک په ۲۰۱۸ زېږدیز کال کې  ده لومړي ځل لپاره  طالبانو سره د کوچني اختر په ورځو کې درې ورځنی اوربند شاهدان وو چې ورپسې بیا د خلکو په ذهنونو کې د اوږد مهالې سولې د ټینګېدو هیلې زرغونې شوې.
 
د بامیان د والي په حیث زما په هدوفونو کې یو دا دی چې د خپل هېواد یو متفاوت انځور نړیوالو ته ښکاره کړم – داسې انځور چې دغه واقعیت ورته په ډاګه کړي چې: له سختو شرایطو سره سره بیا هم بریا او پرمختګ ممکن دي.

Milk fortification in India: The journey so far

Edward W. Bresnyan's picture
 NDDB
In India alone, 185 million people don’t get enough nutrients. This hidden hunger is especially pervasive among children. as more than 70 percent of India’s children under five are deficient in Vitamin D, and 57 percent of all children in the country lack adequate levels of Vitamin A. Credit: NDDB
Globally, more than two billion people are deficient in key micronutrients, which are essential to their good health.
 
In India alone, 185 million people don’t get enough nutrients.
 
This hidden hunger is especially pervasive among children. More than 70 percent of India’s children under five are deficient in Vitamin D, and 57 percent of all children in the country lack adequate levels of Vitamin A. 
 
These deficiencies have contributed to high levels of stunting, wasting and underweight children.
 UNICEF 
Global micronutrient deficiency (as a percentage of the population). Two billion people in the world lack key micronutrients such as Vitamin A or iron. South Asia has the most critical malnutrition levels. Source: UNICEF 


Micronutrient availability can make or break a balanced diet
 
If accessible and affordable, nutritional supplements taken in the form of capsules or tablets can mitigate the symptoms of hidden hunger. But they can become toxic if consumed in large amounts.  
 
Unlike supplements, food fortification is a simple, preventive and low-cost approach to curb micronutrient deficiencies.
 
But except for mandatory iodine fortification of salt, India lags in adopting food fortification as a scalable public health intervention.  
 
This is a missed opportunity as a glass of fortified milk (320g) can provide approximately 34 percent of the recommended daily allowance of Vitamin A and 47 percent of Vitamin D.
 
In 2016, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India released standards for the fortification of five staple food items: rice, wheat, salt, oil, and milk. Further to that, regulations are now in place to fortify milk variants such as low fat, skimmed, and whole milk with Vitamin A and D.   
 
But despite its significant health benefits, and while established for more than three decades by companies such as Mother Dairy, a subsidiary of the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB), milk fortification is not yet common practice across the Indian milk industry.
 
To fill that gap, NDDB partnered in 2017 with the South Asia Food and Nutrition Security Initiative (SAFANSI), the World Bank, and The India Nutrition Initiative, Tata Trusts to explore the possibilities of large-scale milk fortification in India.
 
Over the last twelve months, this collaboration has enabled ten milk federations, dairy producer companies, and milk unions across the country to pilot milk fortification for their consumers. Fifteen others have initiated the process.

Poor sanitation is stunting children in Pakistan

Ghazala Mansuri's picture
A nutrition assistant measures 1 year old Gullalay’s mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) at UNICEF supported nutrition center in Civil Dispensary Kaskoruna, Mardan District, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan.
With a stunting rate of 38 percent, Pakistan is still among the group of countries with the highest rates of stunting globally and the pace of decline remains slow and uneven. In Sindh, for example, things have worsened over time, with one in two children now stunted. Credit: UNICEF


More than one in every three children born in Pakistan today is stunted.

Child stunting, measured as low height for age, is associated with numerous health, cognition and productivity risks with potential intergenerational impacts.

With a stunting rate of 38 percent (Demographic & Health Survey 2018), Pakistan is still among the group of countries with the highest rates of stunting globally and the pace of decline remains slow and uneven.

In Sindh, for example, things have worsened over time, with one in two children now stunted!

The policy response to this enormous health crisis has been almost entirely centered on interventions at the household level—reducing open defecation (OD), improving household behaviors like child feeding and care practices and food intake.  

A recent World Bank report, which I co-authored, suggests that a major shift is this policy focus is required for significant progress on child stunting.

The report begins by showing that over the past 15 years Pakistan has made enormous progress in reducing extreme poverty, with the poverty rate falling from 64 percent to just under 25 percent in 2016.

This has improved dietary diversity, even among the poorest, and increased household investment in a range of assets, including toilets within the home.

This has, in turn, led to a major drop in OD, from 29 percent to just 13 percent. Curative care has also expanded, with the mainstreaming of basic health units and the lady health worker program.
 

Afghanistan’s prosperity rests on investing in its people

Shubham Chaudhuri's picture
Also available in: دری | پښتو
Afghanistan’s prosperity rests on investing in its people
Primary school students are attending their class in northern Balkh Province. Photo credit: Rumi Consultancy/ World Bank

Today, the World Bank Group released the first Human Capital Index (HCI), a new global indicator to measure the extent to which human capital in each country measures up to its full potential.
 
The HCI is part of the World Bank Group’s Human Capital Project intended to raise awareness about the critical role human capital plays in a country’s long-term growth and to galvanize the country’s will and resources to accelerate investments in its people as its most important asset.
 
Afghanistan’s overall HCI indicates it fulfills only 39 percent of its full potential, conceptualized as 14 years of quality education and survival until age 60
 
As dire as this may sound, the overall HCI score places Afghanistan just around a place where it is expected given its income level—in fact, slightly higher than an average low-income country.

د افغانستان سوکالي پر خلکو پانګونې سره تړلې ده

Shubham Chaudhuri's picture
Also available in: English | دری
Afghanistan’s prosperity rests on investing in its people
د بلخ ولایت په یو ښوونځی کې د زده کوونکو حضور. انځور: د رومي مشورتي شرکت/ نړیوال بانک

د نړيوال بانک ګروپ، پر خلکو د پانګونې څرنګوالي په تړاو نن خپل لومړنی راپور خپور کړ، دا نوی راپور په نړۍ کې د هر تن له وړتيا څخه په بشپړ ډول د استفادې پر بنسټ د پانګونې د نړيوالې ځانګړنې کچه ښيي.

پر وګړو د پانګونې ځانګړنى راپور(HCI)، پر وګړو د پانګونې پروژې يوه برخه ده چې د نړۍ په هر هېواد کې د نړيوال بانک ګروپ له لوري د پانګونې د اوږدمهالو پرمختګونو په اړه د خلکو پوهاوي او عامه ذهنيتونو روښانتيا لپاره ترسره کېږي.
د دې پروژې پر بنسټ به هر هېواد و هڅول شي، چې له شته سرچينو څخه ګټه واخلي او دا ګام  به پرخلکو د پانګونې  برخه کې مهم نقش ولوبوي.

د دې راپور د موندونو له مخې، افغانستان پر خپلو وګړو د پانګونې د ځانګړتيا له اړخه يوازې ۳۹ سلنې وړتيا ته رسېدلی دی، چې تر ۱۴ پورې د نيمه لوړو زده کړو تحصيلي درجه او تر ۶۰ کلونو پورې د ژوند کچه ښيي.

پر وګړو د پانګونې ځانګړتيا راپور له مخې، افغانستان په داسې موقعيت کې ځای لري، چې د دې هېواد اقتصادي وضعيت سره اړخ لګوي، دا په داسې حال کې ده، چې افغانستان د نورو لږ عايد لرونکو هېوادونو په پرتله څه ناڅه لوړه درجه کې ځای لري.

رفاه افغانستان مستلزم سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم است

Shubham Chaudhuri's picture
Also available in: English | پښتو
Afghanistan’s prosperity rests on investing in its people
حضورشاگردان در یکی از مکاتب ابتدایی ولایت بلخ.  عکس: شرکت مشورتی رومی/ بانک جهانی

گروپ بانک جهانی، امروز نخستین گزارش شاخص سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم را منتشرنمود. این گزارش جدید شاخص بین المللی میزان سرمایه گذاری را نظر به استفاده مکمل ظرفیت هر فرد در کشور های جهان نشان میدهد.

گزارش شاخص سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم (HCI) بخش از پروژه سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم میباشد، که توسط گروپ بانک جهانی بمنظور اگاهی دهی و روشن ساختن اذهان عامه درمورد نقش پیشرفتهای طویل المدت سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم در هر کشور رویدست گرفته شده است. این پروژه در راستای ایجاد تحرک در هر کشور بخاطر استفاده ازمنابع موجوده برای تسریع روند سرمایه گذاری ها بالای مردم نقش مهم ایفا خواهد نمود.

براساس یافته های این گزارش افغانستان صرف به ۳۹ در صد ظرفیت بل القوه خود در شاخص سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم رسیده، که نشاندهنده ۱۴ سال تعلیم و زنده گی تا سن ۶۰ سالگی میباشد.
 
افغانستان در گزارش شاخص سرمایه گذاری بالای مردم تقریبا در رده (جایگاه) قرار گرفته که کاملاً مطابقت به وضعیت عینی اقتصادی این کشور دارد. این در حالیست که این کشور در جایگای کمی بالا تر در مقایسه با سایر کشور های داری عاید پایین همچون افغانستان قرار گرفته است.

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