Europe and Central Asia

Growth in Central Asia hinges on creating more jobs with higher wages

Jobs and wage growth have been the most important driver of poverty reduction globally, and Central Asia. In Tajikistan, for example, it has cut poverty by about two-thirds since 2003. In Kazakhstan, it accounted for more than three-quarters of income growth over the past decade — even among the poorest 20 percent. The other Central Asian nations have also achieved significant economic growth and poverty reduction in the past two decades due to income growth.

But poverty-reduction rates have slowed. In Kyrgyzstan, they began slowing during the global recession of 2008, as income growth faltered. Poverty reduction in Tajikistan leveled off in 2015, when wage growth slackened and remittances from Tajiks working overseas fell.

In Uzbekistan, more than 90 percent of the poorest households have identified lack of jobs as their most urgent priority. For these families, the prospect of increasing their income is slim, while the likelihood of transmitting poverty to their children is high.

So what should countries in Central Asian do to build on their past achievements and prepare their citizens for the jobs of the future?

Also available in: Русский

Tajikistan achieved high rates of economic growth during the 2000s (about 8% per year, on average), which doubled GDP per capita and helped reduce poverty by almost half between 1999 and 2009. But over the following decade, the rate of poverty reduction began to slow – between 2012 and 2017, poverty fell by about 7.5 percentage points.

While employment and growing income levels continued to slowly drive poverty reduction, a fall in the value of remittances in 2014 began weighing on the country’s performance. Since then, the poverty rate has fallen by about just 1 percentage point per year.

So, despite continued growth, why has the pace of poverty reduction slowed in Tajikistan?

A massive storm system brought historic flooding across South Eastern Europe in 2014, causing more than $2 billion in damages in Bosnia and Herzegovina and shrinking Serbia’s economy by nearly a full percent. Two years later, in August 2016, thunderstorms in the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia dropped 93 liters of precipitation per square meter in just a few hours, sparking flash floods in the capital, Skopje, that killed at least 21 people.

In both cases, some of these impacts could have been reduced by improving cross-border monitoring and forecasting while strengthening early warning services at a national level. Fortunately, governments are now working together to improve information exchanges across boundaries and strengthening regional early warning systems through the South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System.

Also available in: Русский

The social, political, and economic transition of countries across Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia over the last three decades has been a long and arduous process, and many challenges remain. Among them, an imminent concern is the seismic threat faced by certain housing typologies that are believed to have outlived their design lifespan, and suffer from serious deterioration and disinvestment.

Also available in: Русский

A young man sitting next to me on a recent flight from Almaty to Dushanbe told me, “I regret that I did not get a better education. I could have had a better job.” He is one of many Central Asian labor migrants doing low-skilled work in neighboring countries. He continued, “I’m telling my brothers and sisters to study hard if they want to have a better life.”

It was an important reminder about the responsibility we have as a society to ensure that young people like him get the education they deserve.

In light of the technological revolution we are witnessing today, the promise of education is becoming even more important. Emergence of robotics, autonomous transport, artificial intelligence and machine learning will transform the way we live, the way we work, and the skills we will need for work. Some jobs will disappear and some that don’t even exist today will become commonplace. What is certain is that education will be critical to succeed in the new reality.

While Central Asian countries inherited high-levels of adult literacy and education attainment from the Soviet period, the region has since experienced a visible decline in the quality of learning. Students here often lag behind in such basic skills as critical thinking, reasoning, and problem solving.

Also available in: Русский

I sometimes wonder — do women in Belarus live a good life? Well, they are better educated than men, live about a decade longer than men, and enjoy generous social guarantees (3 years of child care leave, for example). And they have a high-level of labor force participation and representation in politics.

Even by international standards, Belarusian women seem to live well. In the latest Global Gender Gap Index, Belarus was ranked 26th out of 144 countries — higher than Australia or the Netherlands. The statistics certainly indicate a high-level of gender equality in Belarus.

But what do the numbers really mean in reality?

Also available in: Русский

During a recent trip to a popular tourist enclave in Kazakhstan called Borovoye, I decided to make a stopover in the village of Makinsk, about 150 km north of the capital city Astana. I was keen to learn more about the communities and people living outside the capital and other major cities. Living in a modern, dynamic city like Astana, one does not get a true sense of people’s lives in rural Kazakhstan.

In Makinsk, I met with Kabenke Dosenkhan and Onerkhan Nurbek, the proud parents of eight children; their youngest was born in February this year. They told me about the village and their daily lives, and they introduced their wonderful children. I also heard about how they had struggled in the recent past to make ends meet, surviving on the equivalent of US$50 per month in child benefits, supplemented occasionally with pay for manual labor by the head of the household, Onerkhan.

Also available in: Română | Русский

Beautiful, newly-erected houses in an otherwise deserted place. There couldn’t be a better image for the effects of Romanian emigration, which the World Bank has analyzed in a recently published report.

If you are wondering who owns the ghost houses, you only have to look at the sheer number of Romanians living and working abroad - between 3 and 5 million according to some estimates or 3.6 million, according to the UN (2017). Of these, 2.7 million are of working age, equivalent to a staggering 20.6 percent of Romania’s working age population!

Also available in: English | Русский

Case frumoase, noi, ridicate în locuri pustii. Nici că ne-am putea imagina un tablou mai expresival efectelor generate de emigraţia românilor, pe care Banca Mondială a cercetat-o într-un raport recent.

Also available in: English | Српски | Русский

Ndoshta askush nuk e ka formuluar më mirë rëndësinë e internetit broadband me shpejtësi të madhe, të besueshëm dhe të përballueshëm se sa Matt Dun nga gazeta online The Hill, i cili ka potencuar se interneti është litari i shpëtimit të një fshati apo qyteti të vogël nga izolimi gjeografik, lidhja e tij me softuerët dhe shërbimet e biznesit dhe përçuesi i tij për eksportimin e ideve dhe produkteve të krijuara brenda vendit.

Europe and Central Asia

Growth in Central Asia hinges on creating more jobs with higher wages

What’s behind the slowing pace of poverty reduction in Tajikistan?

Working Across Borders to Improve Early Warnings in South Eastern Europe

On shaky ground: Housing in Europe and Central Asia

Investing today in human capital for a brighter future tomorrow

Has Belarus really succeeded in pursuing gender equality?

As Kazakhstan’s economy develops, ensuring no family is left behind

Romanian migrants can make a difference back home

Migranţii români pot aduce schimbarea acasă

Zhvillimi i Ekonomisë Digjitale të Kosovës

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