We fully agree that weather- and climate-related risks need to be understood and managed with a long-term perspective. We aim to support “seamless prediction” (see link below) across timescales, ensuring that actionable information and early warnings are available from the short-term for extreme weather (hours to days to weeks), to the medium-term for seasonal issues (months to years), and to the long-term for climate change (years to tens of years). Decision-makers can then plan and act accordingly, whether it is for the next local storm, regional flood, El Niño or long-term climate impacts. We also support a range of disaster and climate risk management approaches that utilize this information, as reviewed in Building Resilience: World Bank Group Experience in Climate and Disaster Resilience (see link below).
We also agree that hydrometeorological information is not sufficient on its own, needing to be combined with socioeconomic and environmental information to truly provide decision-making and planning guidance. This is called “impact-based forecasting” and requires cross-discipline collaboration and information sharing. Providers and users of climate and hydrometeorological information services need to work together to ensure that what is produced meets public and commercial needs, across all economic sectors. Inclusive stakeholder dialogue and agreements are needed to enable user-centric information services, such as a National Framework for Climate Services, for example what we are supporting in Moldova.
As we have seen in Central Asia, only by strengthening activities across the weather information value chain (observation, modeling, forecasting and service delivery) can we ensure that communities and countries become more disaster and climate resilient (see link below).
Explanation of seamless prediction: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/seamless-prediction-from-minutes-months
Building Resilience - World Bank Group Experience in Climate and Disaster Resilience: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16639
Moldova National Framework for Climate Services: https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/nfcs-moldova
Central Asia Hydrometerology Modernization Project: https://youtu.be/vtJFlzgNWXg