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January 2015

It’s Hard to Say Goodbye

Tina Taheri's picture

When we launched Future Development almost a year and a half ago I didn’t anticipate it would take over my life the way it did and right now I feel as if a dear friend was leaving for a different country…. That friend is the Future Development Blog which is changing its host organization from the World Bank Group to Brookings Institution.

It was a difficult decision but as with everything in life change is hard but often for the best; so this is the moment I say goodbye. Since September 16th 2013, the Future Development platform has been the first thing I check and the last every day of the year without exception; and now someone else will be taking over this task.
 
When we started this project, our firm belief was that countries can only achieve shared prosperity if they develop their policies through evidenced-based conversation with their citizens, so our main purpose with the creation of this blog was to empower all engaged citizens to hold their governments to account more successfully so that they take decisions in poor people’s interest and not their own.

From Imitating to Innovating

Marcin Piatkowski's picture

Time to Change Gears for Poland’s Economy

Poland is Europe’s growth champion. It has more than doubled its GDP per capita since the beginning of post-socialist transition in 1989, consistently growing since 1992, and was the only EU economy to avoid a recession in 2009. Poland is a prime example of the success of the European “convergence machine”. In 2014, the level of income adjusted for purchasing parity exceeded $24,000 and reached almost 65% of the level of income in the euro zone, the highest absolute and relative level since 1500 A.D.
 
However, past successes do not guarantee a prosperous future and Poland cannot afford to grow complacent. Given the significant productivity gap—Poland’s productivity per hour amounts to less than half of that in Germany —technology absorption will continue to drive private sector productivity in the near term, but it is unlikely to help sustain—not to mention accelerate—economic growth in the long term as Poland moves closer to the technology frontier. Investment in private sector R&D and innovation will have to increase far more rapidly. Growth can stagnate if Poland doesn’t start shifting from imitating others to generating new ideas, from quantity to quality, and from potato chips to microchips.

Future Development Forecasts 2015

Shanta Devarajan's picture

Despite their mixed record last year, Future Development's bloggers once again offer their predictions for 2015.  Eight themes emerge.
 
1. Global growth and trade. The US economy will strengthen far above predictions. Together with lower oil prices and a better business climate in emerging markets, this will create substantial positive spill-overs, including to the smaller export-oriented Asian economies, boosting the growth of their manufactured exports well above recent trends. The US will look to open new free trade agreements in Asia—India may try to join—and seek opportunities to do the same in Africa. Meanwhile, Germany will face increasing resistance to the free-trade agreement with America (TTIP), just as Angela Merkel celebrates her 10th year in office.