Syndicate content

Add new comment

Submitted by Wolfgang on


The term “economic super-cycle” has been used by Standard Chartered Bank. They argue that the world is set for 3.5 percent growth until 2030. While this does not sound spectacular, it actually is by historical standards. For example, the World economy only grew 2.7 percent annually between 1870-1930 or 2.8 percent from 1973-1999.

Crises have been around us all the time. Here are a few big ones of the last 50 years: The oil crisis of 1973, the economic stagnation in Eastern Europe after 1989, the fall-out after the East Asian Financial crisis of 1997. In each of these cases growth in other parts of the world partly compensated for the crises.
However, the fundamental reason for the possibility of a super-cycle is demographics: where we have reached a peak: Today, there 66 percent of the world’s population is of working age (defined as 16-64 years). It will start to decline but still remain above 60 percent for at least another 30 years. This is the highest share in history.