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Why Serbia Needs to Start its Export Engine

Dusko Vasiljevic's picture
Also available in: Српски

City square in Belgrade This is the story of a country located next to the largest and most connected economic block in the world, with fairly low labor costs and a relatively well educated workforce. You would expect that country to do well. However, the state of Serbia’s economy is problematic. Today, Serbia’s output is below what it was in the 1980s (in the time of Yugoslavia) and only half of its working age population has a job in the formal sector.

At the heart of Serbia’s problems are two interconnected imbalances, which explain why the country appears to be stuck on its path to prosperity. First, the economy is running on domestic consumption, which was fueled by financial inflows since 2000, while exports remain well below potential. Second, employment is driven by the state, not the private sector, with almost half (45%) of all formal jobs in the government or State Owned Enterprises.

The Balkans: Not Enough Skills or Not Enough Work?

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

City bus arrives at a station World BankIn many economies of the Balkans high formal unemployment is often blamed on insufficient skills in the labor force. But this intuitive diagnosis glosses over two fundamental questions, namely: why are workers not training themselves to find jobs, and why aren’t firms investing in upgrading the skills of their employees? In other words, the market seems to be failing by not allocating resources where high returns can be found. In this blog post, we cast doubt on the diagnosis and look beyond the skills gap explanation to high unemployment in the Western Balkans. But this is not unique to the Balkans. Take the US construction industry, which is among the most productive in the world even though it employs many relatively low skilled workers, often immigrants from Mexico and other Latin American countries, who improved their individual productivity several fold by migrating – not upgrading skills.

There is no doubt about the problem as throughout the region unemployment – particularly formal – remains unacceptably high. Serbia is a case in point: Out of a population of 7.2 million people and a workforce of 4.5 million, only 710,000 Serbians have a formal, private sector job. If you add some 380,000 ‘sole proprietors’ – basically people who run mini-shops – you get to around 1.1 million people in the formal private sector. That means that the livelihood of the whole country is built around this 15 percent of the population. Can it really be that firms are still not able to find sufficiently skilled employees in the large remaining pool, especially given that Serbia has decent education results? If finding skilled workers in Serbia is like looking for needles in a haystack, there are surely a lot of needles to be found.
 

Overcoming the Middle Income Trap

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

The Western Balkans Case

ZM-SE003 World Bank The Western Balkans have a lot going for them: ideal location next to the world’s largest economic bloc, a well-educated workforce, relatively low wages and decent infrastructure. FDI and investors should be rushing in … but are they?

Southeast Europe is the next frontier of EU expansion and includes six countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. These countries have a lot in common and an equal amount of differences. They are all relatively small open economies, with a growth strategy premised on deeper international integration. Some, especially Macedonia, are more advanced in attracting international investors but as a whole, the region seems to be stuck in a classical Middle Income Trap: they are too rich to compete on low-cost manufacturing but are too poor to be global innovators. After a strong recovery following war and conflicts in the 1990s, the growth momentum has stalled over the last five years and the region has been particularly vulnerable to external shocks.

FIAT-Serbia: Industrial Policy Trailblazers?

Wolfgang Fengler's picture
Also available in: Српски
 

In the 1970s and early 1980s my family’s yearly vacation trip from Southern Germany to Greece involved a grueling 36 hour trek through the infamous “Auto-put”: Maribor-Ljubljana-Zagreb-Belgrade-Nis-Skopje-Evzoni. The trip was hazardous, always an adventure. To fill our car in “socialist Yugoslavia”, we had to buy gasoline vouchers upfront at the border.

We drove a Fiat 132 which served us well during these long road trips. These memories came back to me when a World Bank team recently visited the brand new FIAT car factory in Kragujevac, two hours South of Belgrade. This is a high stakes investment for FIAT and a strong signal for Serbia’s dormant manufacturing. The factory is producing the new 500L (in several different variants), a modernized version of its legendary Cinquecento. Early this October, the company and the factory celebrated the first anniversary of the 500L’s regular production. During that year, some 100,000 units were produced, overwhelmingly for export around the world, including to the USA. As a result FIAT is now Serbia’s largest exporter (over a billion euros’ worth -15% of total exports of goods from Serbia- in the first three quarters of 2013 ). Just two years before, exports of vehicles amounted to 2% of total exports (see figure).  Today, Kragujevac is producing 600 cars daily and has created more than 3,000 jobs with the potential for more. Importantly, a network of suppliers is springing up, both in Kragujevac, as well as in other towns in Serbia.

The Beauty of Numbers

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

One of my first assignments in the World Bank, some 13 years ago, was in a small and complicated country, better known for coups and mercenaries than for statistical capacity. Before I set off to the Comoro Islands, my then manager (now an established World Bank Vice-president) gave me the following priceless advice: “When you get there, make sure to get a lot of data. It may be difficult to get and sometimes even flawed, but data has one great advantage: It cuts through a lot of crap.”  

Accounting chartsNumbers are indeed beautiful. They can help bring clarity to our lives and save us time as well as resources. But raw data can be messy and you also need a good system for deciding which numbers to use and how to interpret them. Last week’s launch of the 2014 Doing Business rankings reminded me of the advice my then boss had given me. Doing Business started from the premise that companies are the backbone of any economy but that investors often lacked knowledge of the conditions in “frontier economies”. With the benefit of an annual assessment of the business environment in each country, investors could make more informed decisions. As for policy makers, they could more easily attract investors, provided they made a genuine effort in cutting red tape and supporting businesses.