Trafficking in West Africa
Trafficking is not new to West Africa, but its magnitude is. From Northern Mali to The Gambia, smugglers have traded fuel, cigarettes and staple food for decades. Longstanding trade routes and interregional tribal connections have allowed illegal cross-border trading to grow alongside traditional commercial practices.
Trafficking in West Africa
We asked our bloggers and guest bloggers for their predictions for 2014. Here is a summary of seven main themes, which we will re-visit in late 2014 to see how well we did.
1. Global growth will remain robust and tapering by the U.S. Fed will be less consequential to emerging markets than expected (Bhaskaran, Zaman, Raiser). China will do better than markets predict (Huang), and East Asia will continue to grow with relative stability (Quah). At the same time, the economic policies of some Latin American countries will bring their economies to a breaking point, causing political chaos as well (Gonzalez). Political turmoil and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa will continue to weigh heavily on these economies, with average growth for the region below 3 percent (Devarajan).
2. For Europe, 2014 will be a better year. 100 years after the beginning of the First World War, the Balkans will again be the focus of attention but for better reasons. A more pro-European outlook in Germany and a successful launch of negotiations with Serbia will bode well for the EU. Bosnia and Herzegovina, the scene of the assassination of heir apparent Franz Ferdinand which triggered the beginning first world war, will do surprisingly well at the World Cup in Brazil, for which it qualified for the first time ever. The joy, however, will only be short-lived because political infighting will continue to make it one of the least governable states in Europe (Fengler).
If there is one thing that most of the donor community can believe in, it is this: aid gets better results in countries with better governance. The data linking aid effectiveness and governance go back to the work of David Dollar and Craig Burnside around 15 years ago. And though there have been many challenges to the original findings, more recent studies by Aart Kray and colleagues on the World Bank’s (WB) own portfolio confirm that over the past 25 years, WB projects have performed better in countries with better governance. But for most people, it’s not the data that convinces them of this simple, but powerful maxim; it’s just a matter of plain common sense. Or is it?
Something strange and unexpected has happened to the WB’s portfolio in the last few years. Since 2009, projects in fragile and conflict affected states (FCS) have out-performed projects in the rest of the portfolio as judged by both internal and independent evaluations. The share of “satisfactory or better” projects has been 5-10 percentage points higher in FCS versus non-FCS over a three year moving average. Of course, a few years of volatile project performance data are not enough to challenge one of our most deeply held assumptions about aid performance. But what is going on here?
Spoiler alert: I don’t have the answer, just a lot of potential hypotheses. Here are some that come to my mind. You’ll undoubtedly have others.