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Labor and Social Protection

Future Development Forecasts 2015

Shanta Devarajan's picture

Despite their mixed record last year, Future Development's bloggers once again offer their predictions for 2015.  Eight themes emerge.
 
1. Global growth and trade. The US economy will strengthen far above predictions. Together with lower oil prices and a better business climate in emerging markets, this will create substantial positive spill-overs, including to the smaller export-oriented Asian economies, boosting the growth of their manufactured exports well above recent trends. The US will look to open new free trade agreements in Asia—India may try to join—and seek opportunities to do the same in Africa. Meanwhile, Germany will face increasing resistance to the free-trade agreement with America (TTIP), just as Angela Merkel celebrates her 10th year in office.

Can Pay for Performance Provide the Wrong Incentives?

Tito Cordella's picture

Office workers in a meeting The use of technology to improve productivity continues to evolve. In Modern Times, Tramp had to keep up with the crazy pace of the assembly line; in contemporary public administrations, employees have to comply with what is mandated by monitoring and reporting technologies; in today’s World Bank — I’m exaggerating a bit — we are asked to record everything we do in the multiple Bank systems. A legitimate question to ask is whether the reliance on monitoring and reporting technologies improves service delivery or, instead, whether it forces motivated civil servants or employees to waste time “feeding the beast”.

الوظائف أو الامتيازات

Marc Schiffbauer's picture
Also available in: English

إطلاق العنان لخلق فرص العمل في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا

 
ثمة خيار أمام غالبية من هم في سن العمل في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: إما الانضمام إلى صفوف البطالة أو العمل في أنشطة ضعيفة الإنتاجية وتكفي بالكاد احتياجاتهم، وغالباً ما تكون في الاقتصاد غير الرسمي (الموازي). وبوجه خاص، فإن نسبة العاملين في القطاع الرسمي في المنطقة ممن هم في سن العمل لا تتجاوز 19 في المائة.
 
ويتمثل السبب الرئيسي لذلك في أن القطاع الخاص لا يهيئ فرص عمل كافية. وتبلغ نسبة فرص العمل في الشركات متناهية الصغر التي تعمل في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا ما بين 42 إلى 72 في المائة من إجمالي الوظائف، غير أن هذه الشركات لا تنمو. ففي تونس، نجد أن احتمال نمو شركة ما متناهية الصغر بما يتجاوز 10 موظفين بعد 5 سنوات من تأسيسها تبلغ 3 في المائة.
 

Jobs or Privileges?

Marc Schiffbauer's picture
Also available in: العربية

Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa

The majority of working-age people in MENA face a choice: they can be unemployed; or they can work in low-productivity, subsistence activities often in the informal economy. In particular, only 19% of the working age people in MENA have formal jobs.

The main reason is that the private sector does not create enough jobs. Between 42% and 72% of all jobs are in micro firms in MENA, but these micro firms do not grow. In Tunisia, the probability that a micro firm grows beyond 10 employees five years later is 3%.

Why has private sector job creation been so weak?

The Best School for Entrepreneurship is on the Job, Not in the Classroom

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

This has been a very engaging debate and I want to thank Omar as well as the organizers and contributors. In this concluding statement, I’d like to highlight both those areas where we agree and those where we still end up with different perspectives.

We can agree on the following:
 

Skills Gaps and Jobs Strategies

Omar Arias's picture
Working at a call center in Romania The blog I posted to debate with my Bank colleague Wolfgang Fengler the chicken-and-egg question of which comes first, skills or jobs, generated a rich exchange and contributions. While the question was framed around tackling the problem of unemployment in the Western Balkan countries, it naturally applies to almost any country. I want to thank all of those who took the time to write, whether or not they agreed with my main thesis: that countries should invest and strive to develop the basic skills that lay the foundation for the technical or job-specific skills that should be in turn acquired a la par with the changing needs of labor markets.
 

How to Break the Curse of Unemployment: Jobs First or Skills First?

Omar Arias's picture

Some Skills should Come Before Jobs, Others Develop with the Job
 
Students work on an engine at Sisli Vocational High School To be clear from the onset: I will not oversimplify the unemployment (or inactivity) problem in the Western Balkan countries as solely due to a lack of skills in the population. Low employment rates result from both insufficient creation of jobs by enterprises and too-high a fraction of the workforce that is ill-equipped to take on the jobs that a modern economy creates. Both issues are intertwined. Solutions, therefore, require efforts on several fronts to enable a more vibrant private sector –including improvements in the business environment, enterprise restructuring, integration in global markets and promoting entrepreneurship— as well as to prepare workers for new job opportunities.

Why Jobs Need to Come Before Skills

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

The Western Balkans Case

When I travel to the Balkans for work, the journey typically begins with a cab ride to the airport from my home in Vienna. The taxi company I use is run and operated by Serbs living in Austria. It’s a great company: very reliable, clean cars and friendly drivers who are always keen to discuss the politics and economics of the Balkans. When I arrive in Belgrade, I’m picked up by drivers who have very similar skills to those of their compatriots in Vienna. However, the former have better salaries and opportunities simply because the company they work for operates in an environment that is much more conducive to nurturing and growing a business. In Austria, unlike in Serbia, a company can operate efficiently, is subject to a relatively fair tax treatment and knows the industry standards it needs to comply with. In turn, this explains to a large extent why workers, at any given levels of skills, are more productive in Austria – a basic intuition which William Lewis develops in his book The Power of Productivity, projecting the gains that Mexican construction workers make when moving to the USA.

Always Regulated, Never Protected: How Markets Work

Richard Mallett's picture

If you’re not already interested in livelihoods, you should be. Because livelihoods are the bottom line of development. Millions are spent on trying to build more effective states around the world, but development isn’t really about state capacity. At the end of those long causal chains and theories of change, there’s a person – an average Jo (sephine), a ‘little guy’. Making things work a little better for that person, making it easier for them to make their own choices and carve out a decent living…that is the why of development.

The Geography in Ageing

Mamta Murthi's picture
Also available in: Română

A view from Central Europe and the Baltics

A Romanian elderly woman selling flowers Being busy with everyday life many of us, including myself, do not spend much time thinking how our lives will look like in 20 or 30 years. However, when I travel to the countries I work on, I see the challenges faced by the elderly, especially in rural areas.  These challenges include poor access to social and health services, exclusion and simply loneliness.

The countries in Central Europe and the Baltics are ageing.  As a result, the size of the working age population is shrinking, creating labor shortages which could potentially challenge future growth.  Ageing is also putting government budgets under pressure from the rise in age-related spending on pensions and healthcare, and the shrinking base of tax contributors.
   
All of this is well known.  Less appreciated, however, is the fact that in many countries there is a distinct geographical pattern to ageing.  Sparsely populated rural areas are seeing an increasing share of elderly people, while urban areas still attract most of the young generation.   The greying of the rural population creates a challenge for public policy as rural municipalities often have fewer resources with which to address the needs of their elderly population.

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