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Europe & Central Asia

The Past and Future of Export-led Growth

Ihssane Loudiyi's picture

by Shahid Yusuf

The history of development since 1950 is remarkable overall but it offers only a few outstanding success stories. These are based on the experience of a small handful of European and East Asian economies among which Germany, Finland, Japan, Korea, China, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan (China) and Singapore are the notable ‘high achievers’. Each sustained two or more decades of sustained rapid growth between 1955 and 1997. From among them, only China has continued forging ahead at near double digit rates since 2000. All the others have slowed.

An analysis of this unique body of experience yields five stylized facts which together underpin a particular model of development. The questions being asked insistently following the financial crisis of 2008-09, are: whether the export-led growth model can continue to shape the strategies pursued by the elite group of high achievers and also of late starters aspiring to emulate the performance of the East Asian economies? Or, whether changing global circumstances in the early 21st Century have rendered the model obsolete for most if not all economies and demand a fresh approach differentiated according to specific country circumstances?

Russia: How to Sustain Growth in a Resource Based Economy?

Ignacio Hernandez's picture

Using the Russian case as an example, this OECD paper by Rudiger Ahrend looks at concepts such as the "Dutch Disease" or rich natural resource endowments "curses", and argues that the right economic policies can overcome or mitigate institutional pathologies traditionally associated with abundance of natural resources.

 

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