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Trade

The Day After Tomorrow: A Different Kind of Trade

Otaviano Canuto's picture

Over the past three decades, global trade grew almost twice as fast as global gross domestic product (GDP). The massive process of commercial integration was made possible by technological revolutions in transport (like containerized shipping) and communications technologies, and by a dramatic decline in import tariffs. This allowed many developing countries to implement export-led growth strategies that lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

Sophisticated Exports

Otaviano Canuto's picture

What do call centers in Kenya, accounting companies in Sri Lanka, and human resources firms in Abu Dhabi have in common? From the surface, perhaps not much; but from an international trade perspective, these and other industries represent a fundamental change in how countries are doing business.

Frontiers in Development Policy: the Role of Macro-Prudential Policies

The devastating impact of the global financial crisis, which consequently turned into a global economic crisis, created a consensus that pre-crisis financial regulation didn’t take the “Big Picture” of the system as a whole sufficiently into account. As a result, according to the views of many, supervisors in many markets “missed the forest for the tress”.

Relevance of History to Current Global Crisis

A lot is being written these days on the global economic crisis. In fact, the volume of research and blogs on various aspects of the crisis particularly in the developed countries is truly overwhelming. There are too many camps and too many ideas being brandied about the causes, consequences and responses to the global crisis.

The Day After Tomorrow: If You Want To Grow, Learn

Otaviano Canuto's picture

Why is it that some countries are more developed than others? A country is “less developed” not only because it lack inputs (labor and capital) but because it uses them less efficiently. In fact, inputs are estimated to account for less than half of the differences in per capita income across nations. The rest is due to the inability to acquire, adopt and adapt better technologies to raise productivity. As an engine of growth, the potential of technological learning is huge—and largely untapped. Four global trends have begun to unlock that potential, and are bound to continue.

First, the vertical decomposition of production across frontiers allows less-advanced countries to insert themselves in supply chains by initially specializing in

The Day After Tomorrow: The Final Battle in the War Against Poverty

Otaviano Canuto's picture

This is the third in a series of blogs where we take a look at the issues and the countries that will be at the forefront of the development agenda, not now, not next year, but over the next 2 to 5 years—thus, “after tomorrow”1.

There is now a budding consensus on what reduces poverty: it is

The Day After Tomorrow: Fiscal Quality

Otaviano Canuto's picture

This is the second in a series of blogs where we take a look at the issues and the countries that will be at the forefront of the development agenda, not now, not next year, but over the next 2 to 5 years—as we discuss it in more detail in the recently released book

More and Better Jobs: Are Fiscal Stimulus Packages Helping?

Raj Nallari's picture

 

Global GDP growth and as well as GDP growth in each of the regions were lower in 2009 compared to 2007. More specifically, specifically, negative growth rates were observed during 2009 in developed countries & European Union, Central and SE Europe & CIS countries and to a lesser extent in LAC, while the growth rates for East Asia, South Asia, Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa were positive in 2009 but lower than in 2007.

 

Reflecting this, all regions experienced higher unemployment rates, with the highest being in the developed economies & EU, Central and SE Europe & CIS and LAC economies, which again all had negative GDP growth rates in 2009. The ILO estimates that the global crisis has led to 34 million more unemployed and the World Bank estimates that about 60 million people may have been pushed into poverty.

Pathways to Development: What We Know and Don’t Know

Raj Nallari's picture

Development is about welfare enhancing transformation through economic, social, political, and technological progress. Transformation is predicated on per capita income growth but development is also about progress in reduction of poverty and inequality, individual capabilities, access to social services, and quality of life. Both growth and development are also predicated on distributive politics of how a society is able to deal with vested interests and social conflicts.

 

During past sixty years, growth spurts have occurred in most countries but generally outcomes have fallen short of expectations. Developed economies have averaged growth rates of 2.4 percent during 1990 and 2008 while developing economies have collectively increased their GDP by an average of 4.7 percent over the same period. For low and middle income countries, physical capital is the

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