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Submitted by Olga Jonas on
The recommendation to anticipate possible impacts of macrodisasters by reflecting them in macroeconomic projections is excellent, and overdue. It would make sense to do this, in particular, for pandemic influenza, which, in a moderate case, could reduce GDP by 3% and by 4.8% in a severe case(these estimates were obtained by DEC in 2008, are available in a paper at www.worldbank.org/flu, and are similar to the results from other models). Spending on prevention of a flu pandemic - is woefully short of optimal. External financing is about $0.3b per year for control of the avian flu virus at the animal source. External financing is falling, now that media no longer find the pandemic threat newsworthy. Assuming that developing countries and their farmers spend as much again, total annual spending on pandemic prevention is about 5,000 times less than the potential global costs in a severe case. Because prevention is grossly inadequate, another influenza pandemic is inevitable. All countries would benefit from anticipating its impacts on supply and demand in their macroprojections.