Reply to: Calibrating 2014
Absolutely amazing and pretty interesting to read regarding global economy,pretty great analysis, we agree the global economy had difficult year in 2013.
My amazing honey Margaret Brennan CBS news expert in global economy,mentioned last year was not good for global economy,probably for united states and European economy.united stated grew slower then expected which is big worry for global economy US still big growth engine for global economy.
we seen some many ups-down in US economy in starting of 2013,we faced major shut down which hurt economy nearly $24 billions,despite of shut down,and fed continue stimulate economy with lower rate and $85 billion bond purchasing program,result we seen some string sign in economic indicator like strong job data,housing data,manufacturing and industries data,lower inflation and strong GDP data which suggest economy doing well,its continue to pick peace up to nearly 3 or 3.5% annual growth which positive for US and global economy.hope we get long term,budget deal and increase dent ceiling as well as reduce deficit it will help to boost economy.weaker European economy also make big impact on US-European business trade.
another big economy you can say growth engine of global economy,now looking like china little survive to get back in track to get 10% growth,which we were seen few years ago,but higher inflation,failed to reform policies,higher interest rate make investor away from investment in china,property bubble made another worry factor for china,now we seen major effect of hard landing which hurt economy as well as less demand of Chinese good in Europe and US due to weaker demand and economy,also hurt manufacturing sector,china economy is get good grip on domestic economy which help to maintain growth about 7.5%,but we seen recovery in 2014 will help to recover china,need to reform policy,soft landing and keep positive environment for investment.
Margaret also mentioned japan economy also doing well after my abbey took office shot his three arrow,and pumps billions of money to stimulus economy,means break the cycle of deflation and bring inflation also raise sale tax and other tax to make company run on profit also lower yen value help japan for export and sell cheaper products in global market.GDP data also suggest positive sign and economy grow nearly 2% to 2.5% in 2014,
Margaret also mentioned European economy also show some growth though European austerity measure tough but countries like italy,spain,ireland,hungry continue to cut public dent to cuts public sector jobs,pensions,benefit and raise tax hurt economy more,while we seen unemployment record level in Europe nearly 12%,mostly young people,and still banking sector feel pressure after ECB announce easy loan for banks,credit cycle still weak and demand also low put impact on financial cycle as well as credit cycle.
Margaret also mentioned we also seen emerging economy also feeling pain in 2013,most economy not doing well due to impact of US economy growing stronger as well fed exit policy pull investment and restore in US again due to higher profit,many emerging economy feel inflation pressure as well as lower currencies issue make economy in worse condition,but hopefully 2014 become good year for global economy.
Reply to: Calibrating 2014
Reply to: Connected to Compete? Not as Much as We Could Be
Logistics has improved a lot as compared to the earlier.
Reply to: Less Poor but More Unequal
One of the problems here is that data may be even less reliable for the urban poor than for other groups in developing countries. Are household surveys really covering everyone who lives in the street, in slums and informal settlements? And properly correcting for the differences in urban and rural prices? Both for research and for service provision, I'm not sure the scale of the problem is well understood - more specific surveys and censuses on the number and living conditions of the urban poor are needed.
Reply to: Is Europe as Unequal as the U.S.?
I agree. In my view, integration in the EU was effectively generating convergence, up to to 2007-2008. Both in the euro zone and out. That is what the data show. While it is clear that it happened together with financial bubbles, excessive private indebtedness, huge fiscal deficits and the like, all of that did not have to happen. In my opinion this is a valuable economic policy lesson against complaisance: it is in the good times, like 1999-2007 in the euro zone, that old structural problems need to be addressed. And it is then that attention must be given to the effects of capital inflows. In effect, in the "good years" in Europe unit labor costs soared in the smaller economies and credit exploded without a good evaluation of the quality of banks' assets portfolios and obviously without the right kind of prudential supervision