It’s no secret that current account imbalances exist around the world. In many cases, these imbalances may be benign and merely reflect market-driven differences in savings and investment or differences in stages of development. In other cases, persistent global imbalances may be unsustainable and may threaten growth in the long-run. Thus, it’s no surprise that addressing imbalances has been a key focus in recent G-20 discussions.
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
In the aftermath of the global economic crisis, financial market regulators have proposed a myriad of reforms to better govern the banking sector and to enhance its resilience to future shocks. In fact, in September 2010, a number of measures were agreed upon by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, an international forum designed to foster cooperation and develop standards on banking supervisory matters.
South Asia has been one of the world’s success stories in terms of rapid economic growth. With India leading the way, South Asia’s poverty rate has fallen from 60 percent in 1981 to 40 percent in 2005. However, during the same period, the number of poor people—those living on less than $1.25 per day—actually increased from 549 million to 595 million over the same period.
Earlier this month, Japan experienced one of the worst natural disasters in its history, an earthquake and subsequent tsunami that claimed the lives of thousands of people and drastically changed the lives of countless more. Sadly, this tragedy is another in a string of natural disasters that have occurred over the past few years, such as the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, wildfires in Russia, and floods in Pakistan, West Africa, Sri Lanka, Brazil, and Australia.
Professor Barry Eichengreen (left) and
Commodity prices are experiencing a lot of volatility right now, with food and oil prices nearing record highs. But what about the medium-term? The answer is fundamental for developing countries as commodity prices will be the key external variable for them to watch—perhaps even more than interest rates. Commodity prices are expected to stay high until at least 2015, before supply responses and lower relative demand by a burgeoning global middle-class moderate them.
A newsclip in the DECPG Daily dated April 19, 2010, noted: “After Greek aid talks were delayed by disrupted air travel, Greek bond premiums relative to German bunds spiked again on Monday. Air travel disruptions caused by Iceland’s recent volcanic eruption delayed the start of talks on a potential bailout package....
2008 is so last decade. And yet, the recent hike in food prices is bringing food costs near the dangerous levels of that year, creating enormous vulnerabilities in developing countries.
The devastating impact of the global financial crisis, which consequently turned into a global economic crisis, created a consensus that pre-crisis financial regulation didn’t take the “Big Picture” of the system as a whole sufficiently into account. As a result, according to the views of many, supervisors in many markets “missed the forest for the tress”.
A lot is being written these days on the global economic crisis. In fact, the volume of research and blogs on various aspects of the crisis particularly in the developed countries is truly overwhelming. There are too many camps and too many ideas being brandied about the causes, consequences and responses to the global crisis.