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Is there a Currency Regime Change?

Ignacio Hernandez's picture

From PGP's Yan Wang.


Recently there are increasing signs of a US economic slow down or recession, and economists have expressed concerns on its impact to the rest of the World.  Doug Casey, Chairman of Casey Research LLC, went further in his comment on "Currency Regime Change":  After listing a few evidence that central banks, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Emirates, and others are diversifying away from the US dollar, he claimed that  "There is a major change coming that will catch most investors by surprise: the end of the U.S. Dollar as the de-fecto world reserve currency". If this was true, it would have severe consequences on countries holding large dollar reserves and the impact will spread around the world.  

In addition, central bankers are bothered by the issue of where to go: an official in Banca d'Italia: "There are not many places to go once you decide to get out of the dollar". Some central banks are increasing their holdings of gold.  Sweden and Russia, and now Italy are increasing their holding of British pound.  The IMF said the UK pound had overtaken the yen to be come the world's third biggest reserve currency, after the dollar and the euro. Known global reserve of pounds have risen from 55bn to 111.5bn pound over two years.  We are not in the business of predicting, but this has got me thinking "isn't this the right time for the IMF and all multilaterals agencies to sit down and work out a plan for a global fund for development, or a currency swap scheme --some sort of alternative investment vehicle for central bankers to choose from?" In this way, we can hopefully scale up aid by using some of the central bank's reserves.


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