David McKenzie's blog
· Early results from a skills training program for young women in Liberia show massive increases in employment and earnings – although a randomized pipeline design whereby the control group get the treatment about one year after the treatment group raise concerns about strategic delay by the control group and how long-term impacts could be measured.
Many people are aware of the concept of a “placebo effect” in medicine and of the idea of a Hawthorne effect – in both cases the concern is that merely being treated can cause the treatment group in an intervention to change their behavior, regardless of what the treatment actually is.
· Marc Bellemare discusses a new paper in Science which finds young people, middle-aged people, and older people all believed they had changed a lot in the past but would change relatively little in the future – leading people to overpay for
This was a question posed by one of our readers in a comment on an earlier post I did on how to calculate the intra-class correlation in Stata.
· A new paper in Science looks at the impacts of China’s one-child policy on personality, finding people born after the introduction of the policy were, not only less trusting, less trustworthy, and more pessimistic, but also less competitive, less conscientious, and more risk-averse. See this coverage in the The Scientist.
· There is a promising sounding new blog about replication in Political Science. This week a post on how to get a masters degree for a replication discusses many of the things done to make a good replication.
In the spirit of learning from failure, we thought we’d start the New Year by discussing lessons from a series of attempts to implement randomized experiments that ultimately were not implemented. There is ongoing discussion about the need for a trial registry to ensure that all studies that are undertaken end up being reported on.
· Call for Papers – 6th international conference on Migration and Development – to be held in Morocco May 18-19 – papers due end of January.