My latest working paper (joint with Sarojini Hirschleifer, Rita Almeida and Cristobal Ridao-Cano) presents results from an impact evaluation of a large-scale vocational training program for the unemployed in Turkey. I thought I’d briefly summarize the study, and then discuss a few aspects that may be of more general interest.
Recently both the American Economic Association and 3ie have launched Impact Evaluation Trial Registries. The basic idea in both cases is for researchers to register in advance the details of an evaluation they are planning on doing. This has a couple of main purposes:
One of my favorite bloggers, Andrew Gelman, has a piece in Slate.com in which he uses a psychology paper that purported to show women are more likely to wear red or pink when they are most fertile as an example of the ‘scientific mass production of spurious statistical significance.’ Here is an excerpt:
In his latest Letter from America in the Royal Economic Society’s newsletter, Angus Deaton says “your wolf is interfering with my t-value” (the title refers in part to regulations on hunting wolves in the American West) and talks about excessive regulation with NIH grants, and his concerns with the move towards trial registries:
A pre-analysis plan is a step-by-step plan setting out how a researcher will analyze data which is written in advance of them seeing this data (and ideally before collecting it in cases where the researcher is collecting the data). They are recently starting to become popular in the context of randomized experiments, with Casey et al. and Finkelstein et al.’s recent papers in the QJE both using them.