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Submitted by Berk Ozler on
Yes, it is hard to see a lot of lasting impacts on baseline schoolgirls in that report -- CCT or UCT. The speed of catchup for marriage, pregnancy, and HIV after the end of the program is a bit striking for the UCT group. For the CCTs and UCTs, as the effects on educational attainment were significant but small by definition at the end of the program (88% completed primary school in the control group by round 4), they are no longer detectable and don't translate into improvements in other outcomes. Baseline dropouts who had massive gains in school attainment from the CCT program they were offered, see lasting gains and knock-on effects on marriage, fertility, and desired fertility.
Stay tuned for the working paper later this year that includes program effects on their children and husbands -- preliminary findings for which were presented by my co-author at CSAE where David saw the talk...