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Kevin, thanks very much for comments - and I defer to your experience in clinical trials - regression to the mean may indeed be relatively rare. In development evaluation research there are times when this is a real concern, mainly because we know certain key outcomes such as poverty (based on measured household consumption) contain some degree of error. But of course in these evaluations there are no "placebos", more likely pure control groups, although I suggest a "meaning" response may still be present. Thanks again!