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Weekly links June 8: are negative income taxes toxic, marshmallows and SES, psychometric credit, p-value hate, and more...

David McKenzie's picture
  • The Atlantic summarizes a new replication of the marshmallow test, “the new study finds limited support for the idea that being able to delay gratification leads to better outcomes. Instead, it suggests that the capacity to hold out for a second marshmallow is shaped in large part by a child’s social and economic background—and, in turn, that that background, not the ability to delay gratification, is what’s behind kids’ long-term success”
  • David Evans’ collection of logframes!
  • On the All About Finance blog, Claudia Ruiz and co-authors summarize their work in Peru on using psychometric scoring to extend credit to SMEs – using a regression discontinuity.
  • Sylvain Chabé-Ferret hates p-values so much he is writing 6 blog posts about it (post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, others to come). I particularly recommend post 4, which has a nice illustration of the point that when samples are small, if you find a statistically significant effect, it is heavily biased: in his simulation “With N=100, the estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 5% level are 2 to 2.5 bigger than the true effect”.

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