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FDI

Pop the Champagne: Developing-Country Outbound Investment Hits Record High

Cara Santos Pianesi's picture

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has just issued its Global Investment Trends Monitor that looks at outward-bound foreign direct investment (FDI). Here’s the lead: The share of developing and transition-country FDI in global outflows increased to 28 percent in 2010, up from 15 percent in 2007, the year prior to the global financial crisis. These are historic levels, both in absolute terms and as a share of the global total of outbound FDI.

Another important snippet from UNCTAD is that a full 70 percent of developing and transition-country outward investment is destined toward other developing and transition countries—this is also known as “South-South” investment. The Monitor attributes this trend to the stronger recovery and economic condition is those destinations.

Ethiopia: Uptick in Investor Interest

Michael Durr's picture

Here at MIGA, I’m responsible for fielding initial investor inquiries about our political risk guarantees, which is an interesting vantage point from which to note trends. Last year I blogged about the rising interest of foreign investors in Sierra Leone. Talking with investors around the world interested in emerging markets and examining MIGA’s Preliminary Application (PA) data, I see a similar trend emerging in Ethiopia. Investor interest has grown dramatically.

MIGA was created to promote foreign direct investment into developing countries by mitigating political risk. The agency offers insurance to private investors against

Parsing Asia: What New World Bank Reports Say about Investment in the Region

Paul Barbour's picture

In the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, one obvious truth is that locus of growth has shifted east. While the world frets over the stuttering recoveries in the USA and EU, most Asian economies have rebounded well, including a pick-up of FDI into and from these markets. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook expects growth in developing Asia to be 9.4% in 2010 and 8.4% in 2011. Contrast this with estimates for the USA of 2.6% in 2010 and 2.3% in 2011, and for the EU 1.7% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011. A similar story will be found in the Global Economic Prospectsreport from the World Bank Development Economics Group to be launched on January 12. 

 

A central question remains, however: Are these high growth rates and the high returns to investment, risk-neutral vis-à-vis investing in developed markets? Or other emerging-market regions? This question is pertinent for both commercial and political risk – but it is the latter to which I now turn.

 

How Risky, Really, Is the Arab World for Investors?

Paul Barbour's picture

 

 

Recent events surrounding the Dubai World debt standstill raise broader questions about the political risks of investing in the Arab World. The good news is that growth and FDI have risen markedly in recent years; yet, risks undoubtedly remain. I researched the issue in depth for a new Perspectives from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) that highlights the diversity of risks within the Arab World.

 

The Arab World, like other developing regions, provides both potential risks and rewards for international investors. The most important message from the Perspectives piece, though, is that risks vary significantly by country, by sector, and by project. As a result, it’s crucial not to take a one-size-fits-all approach to investing in the region.

 

Case in point: The Arab World is perceived as being prone to war and civil disturbance. Yet available data from the Berne Union shows no claims for war and civil disturbance in Arab countries. Here we see a considerable gap between perceptions and reality.

Iraq: Meaningful Reconstruction and Development

Louis Bedoucha's picture

I recently represented MIGA in a special working group of the OECD focused on Iraqi reconstruction.  It was an interesting and useful gathering, attended by Iraqi civil servants from across the administration, export credit agencies, and of course private sector representatives interested in doing business in the country.

Experts Weigh in on FDI and Political Risk

Michael Strauss's picture

On Wednesday, May 5, 2010, MIGA convened a panel discussion on the state of political risk in the world economy, which proposed to answer the pregnant question: “Are we moving into a riskier world?”  

MIGA Chief Operating Officer, James Bond, moderated a panel that included:

Afternoon with Joe—Thoughts on Risk and Foreign Direct Investment

Michael Strauss's picture

My thanks again go out to the World Bank InfoShop for the opportunity to hear and meet former World Bank Chief Economist—and, indeed, Nobel Laureate—Joseph Stiglitz, who came to speak yesterday about his new book, "Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy".  His trademark frank analysis was both refreshing and enlightening; especially interesting, if troubling, was his view that central bankers’ inflation-hawk instincts will increase the likelihood of a double-dip recession.Freefall

This was a very general presentation about some of the hubristic, anti-regulatory thinking that created the conditions for the recent crisis and the errors in countries’ responses to it.  Stiglitz also excoriated the failures of political will and the power of the strongly entrenched, well-represented interests currently standing in the way of true reform.  These are his views, of course—I make no claims to know enough about what “really” happened to be authoritative on the subject, other than to say that his arguments were persuasive and his examples illuminating.

One subject I was surprised to hear him discuss, however, was the role of interconnected global capital markets in financial crises.  This was a key issue raised after the Asian crisis in the late 1990s; less so for the current “great recession”—although Stiglitz’s tag line that this was a crisis “made in America” and exported around the world reflects a common conclusion of much recent analysis.