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Conflict

Are Rates of Return in Places that are Fragile and Affected by Conflict Really Higher?

Paul Barbour's picture

Supporting populations in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) is a key priority for the World Bank Group.  The Group’s President, Jim Yong Kim, has repeatedly stressed the importance of finding ways to bring sustainable peace and development to these difficult contexts. According to the World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development, more than 1.5 billion people in today’s world live in FCS, or in countries with high levels of criminal violence.

Apart from the very human cost of fragility, it colors foreign investors’ perceptions of risk, especially political risk, affecting private sector activity. This begets a vicious cycle, where economies worsen, increasing fragility. The importance of political risk, including political violence, in the perceptions of investors is well documented, including in the annual MIGA-EIU surveys presented in MIGA’s World Investment and Political Risk report. In particular, MIGA’s 2011 report focused specifically on investing into FCS, and the survey results demonstrate that political violence remains a very serious factor inhibiting investment.

Aside from capital, foreign direct investment (FDI) can bring essential knowledge and technology across borders. These benefits are often what make FDI so sought-after by policy makers. But investors have to consider the return on their investment relative to the risks they are taking, especially political risks such as expropriation, currency convertibility and transfer restrictions, breach of contract by the sovereign, and war and civil disturbance.
 

The Palestinian Private Sector: Resilience in the Face of Harsh Conditions

Layali H. Abdeen's picture

I recall the first time I visited Nakheel Palestine for Agricultural Investments Company fields at Jericho two years ago, when MIGA was still at the early stages of underwriting the project constituting planting date trees. packing dates for Nakheel Palestine for Agriculture Development The land was empty and, at the first glance, the first thought that came to mind was “how can this be developed into arable land?” When MIGA’s Executive Vice President Izumi Kobayashi visited the site for the first time a couple of weeks ago, we found ourselves in fields filled with baby date trees that have beautified the land with their green leaves. And in a tour in the packing facility of the project, we saw how young female workers were sorting and packing the dates, realizing that each of these workers is supporting a household of minimum five members in a very impoverished area.

Ignore the Political Economy at your own Peril

Rebecca Post's picture

Imagine a conversation. “So, your company is expanding its operations in country x, but I hear there is a lot of frustration among young people about unemployment. Are you worried about the possibility of political upheaval?” And the investor responds, “We’re not very worried about any instability. The current government has been in power for decades and we’re very well connected, so if there are any problems, we’ll be protected.” Without naming names, we can think about how this approach to risk management may have failed investors as of late, but such reversals of fortune predate the days of Twitter and Facebook – take the fall of the Suharto regime in Indonesia. At MIGA’s recent discussion titled “Best Laid Plans? How Ignoring Political Economy Affects Development Outcomes and Increases Risk", this attitude toward risk was aptly labeled “risk myopia.”

For Love of Jobs or Money?

Michael Strauss's picture

As part of the launch of the World Bank’s World Development Report, a distinguished panel (including MIGA’s own Edith Quintrell) convened at IFC to discuss the topic of Private Sector Growth and Job Creation. Jyrki Koskelo chaired the panel and asked for a lively and frank discussion. He got more than he bargained for.

In addition to Ms. Quintrell and Mr. Koskelo, the panel included:

  • Arnold Ekpe, CEO of Eco
  • Rosalind Kainyah, Vice President, External Affairs, Tullow Oil
  • Justin Lin, senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank
  • Jay Naidoo, World Development Report Advisory Council Member, and, most provocatively
  • Mohamed Ibrahim, Chairman of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation.

 

Iraq: Meaningful Reconstruction and Development

Louis Bedoucha's picture

I recently represented MIGA in a special working group of the OECD focused on Iraqi reconstruction.  It was an interesting and useful gathering, attended by Iraqi civil servants from across the administration, export credit agencies, and of course private sector representatives interested in doing business in the country.

Lebanon: Open for Business

James Bond's picture

Lebanon is a country of expatriates.  Nine million of its 11 million inhabitants live abroad, in places as diverse as Terra del Fuego, Côte d’Ivoire, and Columbus, Ohio. The Lebanese Diaspora remains profoundly committed to its mother country, remitting money to family back home, investing, and visiting as tourists. 

Investor Interest in Sierra Leone Grows

Michael Durr's picture

I'm in a unique position in MIGA, responsible for fielding initial investor inquiries about MIGA’s political risk guarantees. Over the last few years I have noticed a jump among investors considering MIGA cover in several countries. One of those countries is Sierra Leone.