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Financial Sector

“When the Tide Goes Out, You See Who’s Naked”

Cara Santos Pianesi's picture

Said Martin Sandbu, the FT economics writer that moderated the FT-MIGA Summit, Managing Global Political Risk, last week in London.   
 
This is the fifth year that MIGA, the political risk insurance and credit enhancement arm of the World Bank, co-hosted the event to launch its World Investment and Political Risk report.  Undoubtedly, these have been heady years and most participants agreed that, while it is still strong, political risk has waned since the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring. This sentiment dovetails with the findings of the report, which show that macroeconomic stability won by just a hair over political risk as the factor that international investors fear most.
 
Also in line with these findings, the World Bank’s Andrew Burns cautioned that the world will soon be grappling with the next group of challenges brought about by the tide. What tide? Here, Sandbu meant the significant investment that has flowed to developing countries in search of yield over the past few years, quantitative easing that has kept economies afloat, and high commodity prices. All of these factors are now in flux.
 “When the Tide Goes Out, You See Who’s Naked
And now, the (potential) nudity. That is, as investment to emerging markets tapers, macreconomic tools are used less bluntly, and commodity prices normalize, will countries have laid enough strong economic foundations to weather the inevitable changes that will occur? And as this MIGA-sponsored conference deals with political risk, how will economic changes affect the destiny of leaders and, resultantly, citizens?
 
Tina Fordham of Citi Research emphasized that the structural determinants of political risk are still very present. She noted little improvement in unemployment and an increase in vox populi risk. By this she meant shifting and more volatile public opinion around the world—amplified by social media—has recently resulted in a proliferation of mass protests.  Panelists discussed several other risk factors, including increasing polarization in politics, pressure on central banks to keep the economic show on the road, reduced investment in infrastructure, and a reversal in living standards in some hard-hit countries.
 

Nuevos desafíos, nuevas alianzas

Jose Carlos Villena Perez's picture

Los Organismos Multilaterales y los países del Sur de Europa deben cooperar más intensamente para restablecer la competitividad global de sus economías.

Una de las lecciones aprendidas en los últimos años es que los procesos de desarrollo económico son reversibles. Las otrora economías estrellas del Sur de Europa languidecen hoy en día envueltas en un lento y doloroso proceso de reajuste encaminado a la restructuración de sus sectores productivos y a su defintiva entrada en el SXXI, en lo que a términos económicos se refiere.

Cada vez es más evidente que la recuperación de estos países no se logrará simplemente con la reforma de sus estructuras administrativas y normativas debido a la complejidad de los problemas que afrontan. Tal vez, uno de los más complejos sea la interrupción del flujo del crédito a la economía real, el cuál está afectando gravemente los países del sur de Europa. Esta escasez está dañando seriamente la competitividad de los mismos a nivel internacional y comprometiendo cualquier posible atisbo de mejoría, poniendo, en definitiva, en riesgo la recuperación de la economía mundial.

The Palestinian Private Sector: Resilience in the Face of Harsh Conditions

Layali H. Abdeen's picture

I recall the first time I visited Nakheel Palestine for Agricultural Investments Company fields at Jericho two years ago, when MIGA was still at the early stages of underwriting the project constituting planting date trees. packing dates for Nakheel Palestine for Agriculture Development The land was empty and, at the first glance, the first thought that came to mind was “how can this be developed into arable land?” When MIGA’s Executive Vice President Izumi Kobayashi visited the site for the first time a couple of weeks ago, we found ourselves in fields filled with baby date trees that have beautified the land with their green leaves. And in a tour in the packing facility of the project, we saw how young female workers were sorting and packing the dates, realizing that each of these workers is supporting a household of minimum five members in a very impoverished area.

Political Risk Insurance at the Forefront of Carbon Finance

Hoda Atia Moustafa's picture

Reduce. Reuse. Recycle. Green is the new black. With all of us more aware of global warming and the need to save our environment, the big question we at MIGA are asking is: what can we as an institution do to contribute?

Political Risk Insurance at the Forefront of Carbon Finance

One answer is that we can continue to do what MIGA has always done: supporting private investors. Specifically, however, MIGA can support those investors in the now well-established market of certified emission reductions (CERs) that are freely tradable on the European market, but depend heavily upon activities undertaken in developing countries. Investors relying on CERs as returns on their investments (in lieu of dividends) want assurance that governments that have signed up to the Kyoto Protocol will not renege on their commitments. This is very much a political risk, and with the right structuring is potentially a powerful political risk insurance product line.

Experts Weigh in on FDI and Political Risk

Michael Strauss's picture

On Wednesday, May 5, 2010, MIGA convened a panel discussion on the state of political risk in the world economy, which proposed to answer the pregnant question: “Are we moving into a riskier world?”  

MIGA Chief Operating Officer, James Bond, moderated a panel that included:

Lebanon: Open for Business

James Bond's picture

Lebanon is a country of expatriates.  Nine million of its 11 million inhabitants live abroad, in places as diverse as Terra del Fuego, Côte d’Ivoire, and Columbus, Ohio. The Lebanese Diaspora remains profoundly committed to its mother country, remitting money to family back home, investing, and visiting as tourists. 

Afternoon with Joe—Thoughts on Risk and Foreign Direct Investment

Michael Strauss's picture

My thanks again go out to the World Bank InfoShop for the opportunity to hear and meet former World Bank Chief Economist—and, indeed, Nobel Laureate—Joseph Stiglitz, who came to speak yesterday about his new book, "Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy".  His trademark frank analysis was both refreshing and enlightening; especially interesting, if troubling, was his view that central bankers’ inflation-hawk instincts will increase the likelihood of a double-dip recession.Freefall

This was a very general presentation about some of the hubristic, anti-regulatory thinking that created the conditions for the recent crisis and the errors in countries’ responses to it.  Stiglitz also excoriated the failures of political will and the power of the strongly entrenched, well-represented interests currently standing in the way of true reform.  These are his views, of course—I make no claims to know enough about what “really” happened to be authoritative on the subject, other than to say that his arguments were persuasive and his examples illuminating.

One subject I was surprised to hear him discuss, however, was the role of interconnected global capital markets in financial crises.  This was a key issue raised after the Asian crisis in the late 1990s; less so for the current “great recession”—although Stiglitz’s tag line that this was a crisis “made in America” and exported around the world reflects a common conclusion of much recent analysis.  

Launch update: World Investment and Political Risk

Mallory Saleson's picture

Just back from London where MIGA launched its new report, World Investment and Political Risk, and partnered with the Financial Times to host a symposium on Managing Global Political Risk.  The event was standing-room only, packed with experts from the political risk insurance industry. Debate was lively on the future for investing in emerging markets, managing global political risk in uncertain times, and whether investors are moving into a riskier world.

Asia: the Ins and Outs of FDI

Izumi Kobayashi's picture

I recently returned from a visit to seven countries throughout Asia. Although I had visited some of them before, this was my first visit representing MIGA. During my trip, I recognized the value and potential of MIGA’s focus on south/south investment to investors in this region. Of course providing guarantees to support inward investment to Asia is very important to MIGA, especially guarantees for complex infrastructure projects. MIGA can add a lot of value to these types of projects – particularly when it comes to helping manage the environmental and social aspects of projects.  

However, even through this global economic crisis, many private sector companies in Asian middle income countries have become “investors” in other parts of the world. Investments from Asia reach many of the poorest and post-conflict countries. At the same time, risk-mitigation instruments such as political risk insurance are not well known. We see a role for MIGA in sharing experience and working with Asian export credit agencies and Eximbanks to bring Asian investors the risk mitigation tools they need to help continue expanding their investments.