The 2017 edition of International Debt Statistics has just been published.
IDS 2017 presents statistics and analysis on the external debt and financial flows (debt and equity) for the world’s economies for 2015. This publication provides more than 200 time series indicators from 1970 to 2015 for most reporting countries. To access the report and related products you can:
- Download the full publication (PDF: 6Mb) from the Open Knowledge Repository
- Download or query the database
- Visit the IDS 2017 Products Page
- Access the statistical tables
- Visit the debt portal for a range of related content
- See the press release for highlights from the report
This year’s edition of International Debt Statistics been reconfigured to offer a more condensed presentation of the principal indicators, along with additional tables showcasing quarterly external debt statistics and public sector debt to respond to user demand for timely, comprehensive data on trends in external debt in low middle and high income countries.
By providing comprehensive and timely data that reflects the latest additions and revisions, and by expanding the scope of the data available online, we aim to serve the needs of our users and to reach a wider audience.
Figure 1. Risks to Global Growth
Upside risks to global growth have increased since January while downside risks for current-year growth have reached post-crisis highs.
A 90% confidence interval implies a 90% chance of growth falling within the given range
Assessing economic forecast uncertainty and the balance of risks to the growth outlook is critical to effective policymaking. Lower-probability but high-impact events can lead to significant deviations from baseline projections, and this should be factored into policy design. The World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects unveiled a tool to quantify uncertainty around global growth forecasts and presented it in the form of a fan charts (Figure 1)
The approach adopted in the Global Economic Prospects report consists of two steps.
First, a number of measurable risk indicators that are typical sources of forecast errors for global growth forecasts are selected. Three were chosen: equity price futures, oil price futures and bond term spreads (the difference between short and long term interest rates). For instance, greater volatility in oil price futures could be associated with rising uncertainty around global growth forecasts, while a downward trend in equity price futures could signal rising downside risks to growth.
Second, the probability distributions of forecasts for these three indicators are then mapped to the distribution of global growth forecasts. Both the degree of uncertainty and the balance of risks to the forecast are approximated by weighted averages of the standard deviation and skewness implied by the distributions of expectations for the risk indicators. The weights are estimated in a vector autoregression model (Ohnsorge, Some, and Stocker 2016). To account for potential asymmetry in the distributions of risks, a two-piece normal distribution is assumed, in line with other studies.
In 2016, emerging markets and developing economies are forecast to grow by 3.5% - slightly lower than the recent average. Within this group, trends vary between commodity exporters and importers. In 2016, importers are expected to see steady 5.8% growth, but exporters are struggling to adjust to persistently low commodity prices and are forecast to grow only 0.4%. Read more in the The June 2016 Global Economic Prospects report.
Join us live online and in-person this Wednesday at 9am in DC for “The Future of Price Statistics: Innovations in Data, Technology and Methods”
The World Bank Group’s Enterprise Surveys benchmark the business environment based on actual experiences of firms. In a new blog series we kicked off last week, we’re sharing these findings from recently analyzed surveys conducted through extensive face-to-face interviews with managers and owners of firms in several countries.
In this post we focus on Afghanistan. We’ve conducted a survey with 410 firms across five regions and four business sectors—manufacturing, construction, retail, and services.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that considerable political and security uncertainties have posed challenges for Afghanistan. Furthermore, the financial sector has been vulnerable with eight out of 15 banks classified as weak in late 2014. Within this context, the Afghanistan Enterprise Surveys (ES) shed light on several interesting findings:
Corruption is a challenge
According to the Afghanistan Enterprise Survey, firms face almost a 50 percent chance of having to pay a bribe if they applied for an electricity connection, tried to obtain permits, or met with government officials for tax purposes (“Bribery incidence”). This is more than double of what private firms in landlocked developing countries experience on average.
The private sector continues to be a critical driver of job creation and economic growth. However, several factors can undermine the private sector and, if left unaddressed, may impede development. Through extensive face-to-face interviews with managers and owners of firms, the World Bank Group's Enterprise Surveys benchmark the business environment based on actual experiences of firms. A series of blogs, starting today, share the findings from recently analyzed surveys conducted in several countries.
The Namibia Enterprise Surveys consisted of 580 interviews with firms across three regions and three business sectors – manufacturing, retail, and other services. So what are some key highlights from the surveys?
Exports take on average 8 days to clear through customs but varies according to firm size
In 2013, it took a firm in Namibia about eight days to clear exports through customs, which is considerably more than the two days it took in 2006. Despite this increase, the average time to clear direct exports through customs is still about the same as in the upper middle income countries (8 days) and lower than the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average (10 days). Moreover, there is a wide variation across firm size. For a small firm, it takes about 17 days on average to clear exports through customs, compared to around six days for medium-sized firms and about two days for large firms.
Clearing imports, in contrast, through customs is considerably faster in Namibia (five days) than the average for upper middle income countries (11 days) and Sub-Saharan Africa average (17 days).
Trade blocs are intergovernmental agreements intended to bring economic benefits to their members by reducing barriers to trade.
Some well known trade blocs include the European Union, NAFTA and the African Union. Through encouraging foreign direct investment, increasing competition, and boosting exports, trade blocs can have numerous benefits for their members.
In Latin America, Mercosur and the more recently formed Pacific Alliance blocs together represent about 93 percent of the region's GDP at 2014 market prices. Who participates in these trade blocs and how do they compare?
Size, membership and performance of Mercosur and The Pacific Alliance
The Pacific Alliance is a Latin American trade bloc formed in 2011 among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Together the four countries have a combined population of about 221.3 million and GDP of $2.1 trillion. The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) created in 1991, includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Together the five Mercosur countries have 285.0 million inhabitants and GDP of $3.5 trillion.
One of the areas intended to benefit from these agreements, trade within the blocs, accounts for about 4 percent of the Pacific Alliance's total trade and about 14 percent in Mercosur.
At the start of 2016, the United Nations will launch a new set of Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs, to drive development efforts around the globe. But one question still needs some thought: How will we finance these new goals?
Even more questions lie within this broader question on finance. Which countries need more resources? What types of resources are needed most? Where does international finance, both public and private, currently flow? Where does it not? Answers to all of these require reliable and easy-to-understand data on all international financial flows.
When governments convene in July in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to agree on a framework for financing the new sustainable development agenda, there will be a key window of opportunity to improve the existing, haphazard approach to data collection and reporting.