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Demographics

Migration Policies: Hot Topics

(With Roberto Ponce)

Migration issues have been at the center of discussion in the international agenda, mainly because of the financial crises and the new protectionism measures implemented by developed countries. Despite these current issues, there are several long-term topics that will require further research and attention within next decades.

Among these topics - climate change and demographic changes, and their respective linkages with migration, will be the most challenging one in terms of policy design.

Regarding demographic changes, developed countries (Europe, Japan) are aging whileAfrica, Middle East, and South Asia still experience a transitional demographic change. The challenge will be to meet the needs of migrants with their specific requirements of skills in developed countries, and the offer of youth labor with their specific stock of skills from developing countries. Countries need to be ready to meet these demands.

Economic Crisis is affecting net migration rates in the European Union

Eurostat just released the latest estimates of the European Union demography numbers . According to the report, “EU gained only 1.4 million residents in 2009. (See article)

However, the population change has decreased from 2’046,029 in 2008 to 1’366,372 in 2009 (-33%). This is explained by a decrease in the natural population change and in the net migration. The decrease in natural population change has been due to a slight decrease in the crude birth rate and a constant crude death rate. Hence the major factor responsible for the slowing population growth is the decrease in net migration.

Due to the global recession, migration to the EU slowed down in 2009, for a net migration of  1,464,059 in 2008 to 857,186 in 2009 (a 40% decline). The reduction in migration flows is due to employment losses in countries of destination (especially Spain, Italy, UK) and to more restrictive immigration policies devised by European countries (e.g. UK points system, Italy prohibition on access to health service for undocumented migrants, Spain’s reduction in the number of positions available for immigrants).

The financial crisis and immigration policy: how some developed countries are coping

More restrictive immigration policies by developed country governments are being implemented as the financial crisis deepens. For example, the United Kingdom just published a bill which contains some of the following measures:

1) Migrants who are not citizens or permanent residents of the UK will not have access to full services benefits and social housing; and

2) Migrants will have to pay a levy towards schools, hospitals, and other local services so that that the new flows of UK immigrants do not put pressure on the community.

According to the UK Visa bureau, “the bill is part of the new Australian-style points –based system for immigrants introduced in stages last year, which aims to control UK immigration so that only those needed in the British economy move to the UK and no more.”

Australia may cut migrant visas as unemployment grows. In a recent interview, Australian Immigration Minister Chris Evans said that "the global financial crisis could lead to a smaller migrant intake in 2009, as demand for skilled migrants slowed."

A look at South-South migration and Bangladesh

This recent Reuters article places most Bangladeshi migrant workers in the Middle East, US, UK, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore. The Migration and Remittances Factbook, however, has India as their top destination.

Remittances reduce poverty

I'm originally from a small village in India. There is no doubt that many of the people I knew growing up were able to survive because of the money their relatives sent back home to purchase the most basic staples. In development jargon, this money is known as remittances, but from my point of view, this money was a lifeline.

Remittances directly augment the income of those households that receive them. In addition to providing resources for the poor, they affect poverty and welfare through a whole host of indirect multiplier effects and also macroeconomic effects. The beauty of these flows is that they don't suffer from the governance problems that may be associated with official aid (i.e. the money goes from one wallet to another, sans most of the red tape in between).

On a larger scale, analysis across countries worldwide shows the significant poverty reduction effects of remittances: A 10 percent increase in per capita official remittances may lead to a 3.5 percent decline in the share of poor people.

Recent research shows that remittances have reduced the poverty headcount ratio (percent of population below the national poverty line) significantly in several low-income countries-by 11 percentage points in Uganda, 6 percentage points in Bangladesh, and 5 in Ghana. In Nepal, remittances may explain a quarter to a half of the 11 percentage-point reduction in the poverty headcount rate over the past decade (in the face of a difficult political and economic situation).

Just based on the simple figures I've referenced, does it not behoove us in the development community, especially policymakers and governments, to facilitate the investment and flow of money across borders?