Remittances

With Sanket and Ani

We have just released Migration and Development Brief 11 (see accompanying presentation) reporting latest data on remittance flows. Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion. Based on monthly and quarterly data released by some central banks and in line with the World Bank’s global economic outlook we estimate that remittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317 billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller than our earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall.

By now it is clear that existing migrants are not returning even though the job market has been weak in many destination countries; instead they are staying on longer and trying to send money home by cutting living costs. New migration flows are lower due to the economic crisis, but they are still positive. We maintain our expectation of a recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is likely to be shallow.

US-based migrants may find it much harder to opt for formal channels in sending money to needy family members overseas because of an increasing tendency on the part of a number of US banks to close down the accounts held by small, niche money transfer companies—including many that are in full compliance with licensing, auditing, customer reporting and other regulatory requirements of US state and national authorities.

The World Bank, jointly with Agence Française de Développement (AFD), organized the Second International Migration and Development Conference on September 10-11th. The organizing committee consisted of Caglar Ozden and Maurice Schiff of the World Bank and Hillel Rapaport of Bar Ilan University (currently visiting Harvard University). This was a follow-up of the conference in Lille, France in June 2008, after which AFD agreed to sponsor a conference every year. The next conference is scheduled to be held at the Paris School of Economics in June 2010, hosted by Francois Bourguignon, former Chief Economist of the World Bank.

The conference program included the latest papers by the leading academics and researchers addressing a wide range of issues on the development and the migration nexus. Among the topics were migration and institutions, illegal migration, link between poverty and migration, human capital formation and migration, self-selection, migrant networks and social externalities. A total of 38 papers including two keynote addresses via parallel sessions were presented.  

Santa Catalina Arch, Antigua, Guatemala. Photo © Sanket Mohapatra/World Bank

I recently made a presentation on the impact of the financial crisis and our outlook for remittances in 2009-10 at a conference on improving central bank measurement and procedures on remittances organized by CEMLA and the Banco de Guatemala on September 8-10. My colleague Jacqueline Irving presented on a global survey of central banks.The sessions and interactions with the participants made me aware that central bankers are not just interested in measuring remittances accurately, but are thinking about a range of issues that affect both remittances and migration—ranging from how exchange rate movements can create incentives to send remittances for investment motives, to intra-regional and bilateral migration flows.