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China grew faster than its target and most projections in 2009 – what are the key takeaways?

Louis Kuijs's picture
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China’s economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009. This was more than the 8 percent target, despite the global recession that caused global output excluding China to fall about 3 percent. China’s growth outcome is substantially higher than projections made in early 2009. For instance, in our  World Bank quarterly economic update (of which I am the lead author) we projected 6.5 percent GDP growth and some other forecasts were even lower (see Figure 1).

How did these forecasts come about, and what lessons we can draw from the experience of China’s growth in 2009? I cannot speak for my colleagues at the World Bank, let alone for other economists. But, all in all, while I have learned important lessons, I am not sure how differently I would see and do things if again presented with a situation like we were in a year ago.

Somber Prospects for Madagascar’s Economy

Noro Andriamihaja's picture

Madagascar’s economy has been in recession since the beginning of the political crisis in March 2009, and prospects for 2010 don’t look too promising.  The prudent fiscal policy adopted by the Government will be increasingly difficult to sustain in 2010. Key financial indicators continue to be vulnerable to policy shifts and shocks, and export competitiveness losses have begun to create pressures on the balance of payments.  All in all, a major turnaround in the downward trend of economic activities is unlikely to occur in 2010.

See an assessment of the Madagascar economy here.

Зуд: Байгалийн энэхүү гамшиг нь Монголын мал аж ахуйд болон малчдын амьжиргаанд хүндрэл учруулж байна

Arshad Sayed's picture

Get the flash player here: http://www.adobe.com/flashplayer

Hover over "Notes" for photo information. View photos large.

(Originally published in English.)

Өнөөдрийн байдлаар Монгол Улс ихээхэн хэмжээний цас, хүйтэн хавсарсан цагаан “зуд” хэмээх байгалийн гамшигт нэрвэгдээд байна. Энэ нь зундаа ган гачигтай байснаас бэлчээрийн хомсдолд орж, өвс тэжээл хангалттай базаах боломж олгоогүй улмаар өвөлдөө цас их орж, салхилан цаг агаар хэвийн хэмжээнээс доогуур болж хүйтний эрч эрс чангарсантай холбоотой.  Бэлчээрийг үлэмж их цас дарж, мал сүрэг бэлчих аргагүй болж, өвс тэжээлээр гачигдан зутрах зэрэг өвлийн улирлын нөхцөл байдалд зуд болдог.

Why Climate Adaptation Has to Begin at Home

Tom Grubisich's picture

DM2009 finalists focused on community-based adaptation (CBA) to climate change because the struggle against intensifying drought, storms, flooding, and rising sea levels in developing countries often must begin not in national ministries but at home.  Why that's so is summed up cogently in this slide show from CARE, the global  organization that focuses on helping the poorest individuals and households  The slide show was presented at the pre-Copenhagen U.N. climate meeting in Poznan, Poland, in December 2008, but it's as relevant today as it was then.  Maybe more so.

A conversation on migration and development

Dilip Ratha's picture

I was recently interviewed by Kanchan Banerjee, the editor of New Global Indian. The interview touched on many aspects of migration and development that may interest you. Thanks to Kanchan for giving us permission to reproduce the interview below.

KB- About half a decade ago, you were among the first in the world to figure out the first global tally of remittances, what was the result?

DR-The money that migrants send home turned out to be way larger than I expected, the finding actually stunned experts in the field. Gathered from a trickle of hard-earned cash, believe it or not, remittances are larger than $300 billion a year. Compare that with official aid flows which are just about $100 billion a year.

KB-Today you are a leading figure in the area of Migration and Development. What are the factors that attracted you to work on the two related areas of development in today's inter-connected world?

DR- As a migrant myself, I am deeply interested in the phenomenon of migration and remittances. Before Y2K, I was actually talking with friends about starting a money transfer service to India from the US! The main reason for my interest in migration is that it produces instant poverty corrupt practices. This enables a poor person to hold his/her head high in the society. When migrants send money, it helps not only the immediate family members and friends, but also indirectly the local community. I call remittances 'value-added money' because it is not only the dollar that comes in, each dollar also comes with advice on what to do with it. Also remittances are friends in foul weather they increase when the recipient is facing difficult times. There are about 200 million migrants worldwide, supporting as many if not more people at home. That suggests that remittances may reach almost a tenth of the world's population.

Is India's Fiscal Consolidation at Hand?

Eliana Cardoso's picture

“What you don’t touch, for you lies miles away. (…) What you don’t coin, you’re sure is counterfeit.” These sophisms are voiced by Mephistopheles, under the guise of the Court Fool, in Goethe’s Faust. He aims to convince the Emperor to mint more coins, for money buys everything: parks and palaces; breasts and rosy cheeks. The Commander-in-Chief accompanies the scene and speaks his mind: “The Court Fool is wise, for he promises benefits to all.”

Economic theory, in contrast to the Commander-in-Chief, the Court Fool and other populists, states that all government handouts come at a cost – regardless of whether they are distributed in the form of subsidies or direct transfers. Financing them is only possible by raising taxes and getting into debt (or creating more money… and inflation).


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