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Why low oil prices are also bad news for the poor in Central Asia

Aurelien Kruse's picture
Trade & remittancesThe conventional wisdom is that low world prices for oil only hurt rich exporting countries, while generating a windfall for poor net importer economies.

However, in Central Asia, the story is more complicated. This is because the region’s poorer countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, depend critically on Russia through trade and remittances.

Falling remittances, reflecting the weakness of the Russian Ruble

According to just-released Russian Central Bank data, outward remittances from Russia fell sharply in the first half of the year, in USD terms. In the first six months of 2015 (relative to the same time in 2014) private transfers from Russia to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are reported to have fallen by over 45% and 30% respectively. While less exposed, Uzbekistan has experienced a loss of even greater magnitude: -48%.

World Bank’s #Music4Dev catches Dengue Fever

Korina Lopez's picture

During their brutal reign from 1975-1979, the Khmer Rouge killed an estimated two million people, targeting artists and intellectuals, even people who wore eyeglasses. Cambodian arts and music have been making a comeback through the education of younger generations. Educating and raising awareness of Cambodian arts also means employment for the master artists and possibly their students.

Sustaining structural reforms in Africa in good and tough times

Sudharshan Canagarajah's picture

The recently-published
Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by the International Monetary Fund underscores the enduring view of  international financial institutions that the depth, pace and perfecting of structural reforms needs to continue, not only for competitiveness and growth but also for resilience should external headwinds emerge. The report also presents an important opportunity to further develop this agenda, by the additional treatment of the underlying causes, particularly non-price based ones, and thereby generate a more actionable view of the growth, competitiveness and equality trends so incisively presented in the report.

Are you GovSmart? Take our November quiz to find out!

Alice Lloyd's picture

Last month we blogged about public financial management, four ways governments are making girls’ lives better and much more.
Take our quiz to sharpen or refresh your knowledge about issues related to governance.
And let us know if you're "GovSmart." Please tweet your score @wbg_gov!


How do developing country decision makers rate aid donors? Great new data (shame about the comms)

Duncan Green's picture

A small business owner, GhanaBrilliant. Someone’s finally done it. For years I’ve been moaning on about how no-one ever asks developing country governments to assess aid donors (rather than the other way around), and then publishes a league table of the good, the bad and the seriously ugly. Now AidData has released ‘Listening To Leaders: Which Development Partners Do They Prefer And Why?’ based on an online survey of 6,750 development policymakers and practitioners in 126 low and middle income countries. To my untutored eye, the methodology looks pretty rigorous, but geeks can see for themselves here.

Unfortunately it hides its light under a very large bushel: the executive summary is 29 pages long, and the interesting stuff is sometimes lost in the welter of data. Perhaps they should have read Oxfam’s new guide to writing good exec sums, which went up last week.

So here’s my exec sum of the exec sum.

Does competition create or kill jobs?

Klaus Tilmes's picture

Greater competition is crucial for creating better jobs, although there may be short term tradeoffs.

Job creation on a massive scale is crucial for sustainably ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity in every economy. And robust and competitive markets are crucial for creating jobs. Yet the question of whether competition boosts or destroys jobs is one that policymakers often shy away from.

It was thus valuable to have that question as a central point of discussion for competition authorities and policymakers from almost 100 countries – from both developed and developing economies – who recently gathered in Paris for the 14th OECD Global Forum on Competition (GFC).

According to World Bank Group estimates the global economy must create 600 million new jobs by the year 2027 – with 90 percent of those jobs being created in the private sector – just to hold employment rates constant, given current demographic trends.
Yet the need goes further than simply the creation of jobs: to promote shared prosperity, one of the urgent priorities – for economies large and small – is the creation of better jobs. This is where competition policy can play a critical role.
Competition helps drive labor toward more productive employment: first, by improving firm-level productivity, and second, by driving the allocation of labor to more productive firms within an industry.
Moreover: Making markets more open to foreign competition drives labor to sectors with higher productivity – or, at least, with higher productivity growth. Making jobs more productive, in turn, generally increases the wages they command.
That’s in addition to cross-country evidence on the impact of competition policy on the growth of Total Factor Productivity and GDP, and the fact that growth tends not to occur without creating jobs. Thus there’s compelling evidence that – far from being a job killer, as skeptics might fear – competition (over the long term) has the potential to create both more jobs and better jobs.

The key question then becomes whether such long-term benefits must be achieved at the expense of short-term negative shocks to employment – especially in sectors of the economy that may experience sudden increases in the level of competition.
Progress toward better jobs is driven partly by the disappearance of low-productivity jobs, as well as the creation of more productive jobs in the short run. Competition encourages that dynamic through firm entry and exit, along with a reduction in “labor hoarding” in firms that have previously enjoyed strong market power.

Cancer care: A neglected area in global health?

Hellen Gelband's picture

Paul Farmer recently wrote in this space about Essential Surgery, the first volume released of nine expected in the Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition series. He characterized that book as shining a spotlight on a long-neglected topic in global health and gave these reasons for the neglect: “Prevailing wisdom dictated that the surgical disease burden was too low, surgical expenses too high, and delivery of care too complicated.”

What will it take to accelerate progress on road safety?

Pierre Guislain's picture
As representatives from over 100 countries gather in Brasilia for the Second Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety on November 18-19, the question on everybody’s mind is: what will it take to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of halving the number of fatalities and injuries from road crashes by 2020?
The latest evidence from a WHO report shows that global road death estimates have plateaued since 2007, at an unacceptable level of 1.25 million deaths per year. A different and bolder approach is clearly needed.

Three major areas require special attention: Africa and low income countries more generally, large middle-income countries, and sprawling urban centers.
Photo: Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank

Africa is the region with the highest death rates: at 27 deaths per 100,000 population in 2013, it was one and a half times the global average of 18. Road traffic fatality rates have actually increased in Africa over the past few years, despite decreases in other regions. More generally, Low-income Countries, which have just 1% of cars and 12% of the global population, nonetheless suffer 16% of total deaths from road crashes.
We also need to pay greater attention to middle-income countries like Brazil, China, and India which, due to their large populations and motorization rates, together contribute over 40% of the global deaths from road crashes.  
Furthermore, by 2050, the world will add 2.5 billion people to our cities, which already account for about half of road fatalities. In the cities, attention to speed management and improving facilities for pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists is very important.