The Global Infrastructure Outlook is a landmark country-based online tool and report developed by the Global Infrastructure Hub with Oxford Economics, which forecasts infrastructure investment needs across 50 countries and seven sectors to 2040.
Although there are already forecasts for infrastructure investment in the market, the public and private sectors indicated their need for fresh, country-level data. Outlook was created to meet that knowledge gap.
For the first time we have data about what each country needs to spend in each sector, and importantly – the gap between what needs to be spent and current spending trends.
roads and highways
Photo: Munish Chandel | Flickr Creative Commons
This is the final blog in a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
As explained in the previous two blogs – Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting and Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in Traffic Forecasts – traffic risk is inevitable, given our imperfect ability to predict traffic and revenue a long way (often several decades) into the future. And what makes it harder is that there are often biases at play in the typical project environment, which can cause a skewness towards over-estimation rather under-estimation of traffic flows. This, of course, can then result in financial losses and distress for the project, as manifested in a number of high profile bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts in the toll road sector.
In the new PPIAF and GIF publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we outline various ways in which governments, bidders and financiers can take important steps to reduce the amount of traffic risk in projects. But we also acknowledge that the use of, for example, industry-standard forecasting techniques, better due diligence and a more stable policy environment will only go so far in reducing traffic risk. The reality is that there will always be some risk in any project, regardless of the best endeavors taken by the project parties. So, the key question is, what should we do with traffic risk and who should be responsible for bearing that risk?
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
– “The Big Short”
Forecasting traffic accurately is a very difficult and thankless task, as I explained in my previous blog: Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting. As such, this gives rise to very real financial risks if these forecasts turn out to be wrong. This risk has crystallized many times as manifested in high-profile distressed projects, bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts.
So what’s driving the inaccuracy and resulting risk in traffic forecasts? In the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we postulate that forecasting inaccuracy comes from three sources:
Photo: Jorge Franganillo | Flickr Creative Commons
This is the first of a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
– Professor Nils Bohr, Nobel Laureate
Professor Bohr was right: prediction is hard work. As a species, we don’t have difficulty making predictions. I, for one, frequently make doom-laden predictions on a diverse range of subjects ranging from politics to the fortunes of my beloved football team, Liverpool Football Club.
No, the problem is that humans, as a rule, are not very good at predictions. Sadly, that illusive ‘crystal ball’ still has not been invented. And the sheer complexity of living on an ever-changing and evolving planet alongside 7 billion equally complex individuals—all making unique but increasingly interdependent decisions—makes even the most straightforward predictions difficult.
What’s the difference? The private sector.
In 2003, the Government of Jamaica finally succeeded in doing what it had been trying to do for a decade: privatize Montego Bay Airport. A private sector consortium, led by Vancouver International Airport, quickly invested millions of dollars in expanding the terminal building, doubling the airport’s capacity and opening dozens of new retail spaces. Since then, the consortium has invested more than US$200 million on expansions and improvements to the airport, all of which has been entirely off the government’s balance sheet.
Jamaica has gone on to implement several more public-private partnerships (PPPs), with mixed results. The second phase of its ambitious highway construction program — the Mount Rosser Bypass — was recently opened, cutting a swath through miles of virgin territory. However, early indications are that traffic levels are not living up to expectations, probably due to the Bypass’ steep eight percent gradient, which is beyond the means of most Jamaican trucks and buses.
In the energy sector, Jamaica is completing three PPPs with a total of 115 megawatts of renewable energy (RE) capacity, putting the country on track to meet its RE target of 12.5 percent of generating capacity by the end of 2015. Lastly, the government is currently completing formalities for the sale of Kingston Container Terminal (KCT) to a consortium of CMA/CGM and China Merchant Marine, a transaction that is expected to result in a US$600 million capital expenditure program by the port’s new owners.
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Bahamas, The
- Latin America & Caribbean
- wind energy
- wind power
- geothermal power
- roads and highways
- road construction
- public-private partnerships
- public-private partnership
- public-private dialogue
- partenariats public-privé
- infrastructure financing
Why is Senegal’s Dakar-Diamniadio toll road, which opened on time and on budget in August 2013, so successful? The road has dramatically improved urban mobility around Dakar, reducing commute times between the city and its suburbs from two hours to less than 30 minutes.
Building on this positive experience, in 2014 the Government of Senegal awarded a further concession to extend the motorway to connect it to Dakar’s new Blaise Diagne International Airport. Excluding South Africa, this is the first greenfield road PPP in sub-Saharan Africa. What lessons can we draw?
- Political commitment. The Government of Senegal set the project as a priority. The first driver on the road was the President – who paid the toll. But commitment alone isn’t enough; it needs to be turned into action by government agencies. An intra-agency coordinating committee was set up. The National Agency for the Promotion of Investments (APIX) oversaw the preparation of the concession. The Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) supported APIX with technical assistance, including the design of a framework for the oversight of the project.
- Consensus-building and stakeholder engagement. Part of PPIAF’s US$250,000 grant to the Government of Senegal helped to pay for seminars with stakeholder groups to discuss structuring options for the road and socio-economic drivers of the willingness to pay. The final structure chosen involved a relatively low toll, with an upfront contribution by the government to the cost, with the concessionaire taking full construction, operating and traffic risk. The combination of careful outreach to stakeholders, a fairly low toll, significant time savings and a well-maintained road meant that the first toll road in the country was accepted by the population. In addition, the fact that there is a free alternative road helped the Government and other stakeholders point out that motorists could always choose to use the other route.
- Experienced concessionaire with strong commitment to Senegal. The concessionaire, the Eiffage Group is one of Europe’s leading construction and toll road operating companies, with a long history of involvement in, and commitment to, Senegal. Eiffage, through the special purpose company set up to construct and operate for 30 years the road, SENAC S.A., ensured that the road was constructed and is being operated to a high standard, on time and within budget.