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May 2010

South Africa: Growth Acceleration Bodes Well for 2010 (World Cup?) Prospects

Theo Janse van Rensburg's picture

In light of the GDP figures released on 25 May 2010, which indicated that growth accelerated further to 4.6% in 2010q1 (from 3.2% in 2009q4), this short note provides a brief analysis of the implications for GDP growth in calendar 2010 as well as for the South African Government’s Budget Review growth forecast.

The Modern Greek Tragedy Follows a Classical Script

Jamus Lim's picture

Although the crisis that is currently playing itself out in Greece may seem novel to many observers of developed markets, it follows, in many ways, a well-worn script of capital account liberalization followed by crisis, one that has been seen many times in emerging markets. In fact, that crises almost inevitably follow major capital account liberalization episodes is somewhat accepted as a stylized fact in international finance. Think of the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s, which came after many of them opened their capital accounts in the mid-1970s.

Greek contagion: who is susceptible?

Hans Timmer's picture

As Greece’s debt crisis escalated, analysts and the media have so far mostly focused on possible spillovers to countries in Southwestern Europe and on weakening of the euro.

It is striking that for weeks, financial markets have not been exceptionally worried about strong contagion to emerging economies, even though there are vulnerabilities in emerging Eastern Europe and European banks are heavily invested in emerging economies all around the world.

The Optimal Design of Sovereign Wealth Funds

Jamus Lim's picture

Although much of the news flow regarding oil in recent days has focused on the terrible environmental tragedy off the Gulf of Mexico, another oil-related story has occupied the minds of many market analysts: that of rising oil prices, along with the overall increase in the prices of a whole host of commodities, as the global recovery has taken hold.