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June 2011

Bouyant in South Asia but inflation and fiscal debt are growing concerns

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

The World Bank’s latest outlook (Global Economic Prospects: June 2011) projects that after growing 9.3% during calendar year 2010, activity in the South Asia Region will slow down and moderate to a still buoyant 7.5% in 2011. The slowdown partly reflects macroeconomic policy tightening aimed at curbing stubbornly high inflation and reducing large fiscal deficits.

Return to stable growth in developing Europe and Central Asia

Lucio Vinhas de Souza's picture

GDP growth in developing Europe and Central Asia, the developing region most affected by the 2009 downturn, rebounded to an estimated 5.2% in 2010, following a 6.5% contraction in 2009. Limited credit growth, the deleveraging of household-sector balance sheets and continued industrial sector restructuring following the easy-credit excesses of the boom period are expected to continue weighing on GDP.

Prospects Weekly: Global industrial production declined 1.1% in April in the wake of the tsunami and earthquake in Japan

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Global industrial production declined 1.1% in April in the wake of the tsunami and earthquake in Japan, likely reflecting supply-chain disruptions. All developing regions reporting data for the month saw declines, and high- income countries excluding Japan saw a 1.2% drop. However, reconstruction activity in Japan and stabilization of fuel prices are expected to support a rebound in industrial production in the second half of 2011.

Global Commodity Watch - June 2011

John Baffes's picture

Non-energy commodity prices fell by 4.7 percent in May, in part due to dollar appreciation against major currencies early in the month. There were decreases in all main indices with the exception of fertilizers which rose 7 percent on reduced production in China because of power shortages. Agriculture prices generally declined on improved supply prospects, while the decrease in metal prices was tied to worries of slower economic growth, including in China. Crude oil prices fell 7 percent on concerns about global demand. 

 

Global Commodity Watch - June 2011

John Baffes's picture

Non-energy commodity prices fell by 4.7 percent in May, in part due to dollar appreciation against major currencies early in the month. There were decreases in all main indices with the exception of fertilizers which rose 7 percent on reduced production in China because of power shortages. Agriculture prices generally declined on improved supply prospects, while the decrease in metal prices was tied to worries of slower economic growth, including in China. Crude oil prices fell 7 percent on concerns about global demand. 

 

Global Commodity Watch - June 2011

John Baffes's picture

Non-energy commodity prices fell by 4.7 percent in May, in part due to dollar appreciation against major currencies early in the month. There were decreases in all main indices with the exception of fertilizers which rose 7 percent on reduced production in China because of power shortages. Agriculture prices generally declined on improved supply prospects, while the decrease in metal prices was tied to worries of slower economic growth, including in China. Crude oil prices fell 7 percent on concerns about global demand. 

 

World Bank publishes latest commodity prices: June 2011

John Baffes's picture

Commodity prices (measured in U.S. dollars) were down in May 2011. Energy prices fell by 6.5% while non-energy prices declined by 4.7%. Food prices eased by 1.5%; beverages dropped by 1.7%; raw materials prices plummeted by 15.1%; metals and minerals declined by 5.9%; fertilizers up by 7.2%. The US dollar appreciated 0.9% against the euro but depreciated marginally against a broad index of currencies.

East Asia: growth to moderate as economies hit full capacity

Theo Janse van Rensburg's picture

The latest Global Economic Prospects 2011 finds that growth and recovery in the East Asia and Pacific region has been broad-based, with five countries registering growth of 7% or more in 2010. GEP 2011 projects that growth in the region will likely slow but remain strong this year, with GDP gains easing from 9.6% in 2010 to 8.5% in 2011 and to just above 8% in 2012-13. East Asia, excluding China, is projected to grow by about 5.5% each year over 2011-2013.

GDP impact of oil price shock

Theo Janse van Rensburg's picture

The current turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has been associated with a $22/bbl increase in oil prices from $90/bbl in December 2010 to $112/bbl by late April 2011 (a 40% increase over the average price of $79.60/bbl in 2010).

In the World Bank’s latest baseline projections, oil prices are expected to gradually decline toward a long-run equilibrium price of about $80/bbl in constant 2011 dollar terms. This implies annual price levels of $107/bbl in 2011 drifting to $96.70/bbl by 2013.

Prospects Daily: U.S. unemployment claims up; Euro Area credit risk increases.. Trichet hints at rate hike

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Important developments today:

1. Credit risk for Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt increases to record highs

2. U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rise in latest week

3. U.S. trade deficit narrows as oil and auto imports fall

4. Japan GDP falloff in first quarter less than first estimated

 

Prospects Daily: World Bank sees Global recovery facing headwinds

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

 

Important develoments today:

1. World Bank releases ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report, highlighting risks to world recovery

2. China’s net purchase of Japanese long-term government debt reaches record high

3. U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke: ‘Uneven’ recovery…watch excessive budget cuts

4. OPEC: no consensus on output quotas